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Labor looks likely to win 2025 Election (independentaustralia.net)

submitted 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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"Having rescued the economy from damage done by the Coalition and stabilising government debt, the ALP is polling well for a second term in office."

An interesting take from Koukalas from back in July. Still valid?

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[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

The observation I found most interesting here is obvious but hadn't occurred to me. That is that the RBA is going to find it increasingly difficult to justify not reducing interest rates going into the election. As much as that has almost nothing to do with the government if voters are feeling economic pressures lifting and the ALP can get some media traction with it they've got a chance.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 week ago (1 children)

if voters are feeling economic pressures lifting

Only 1/3 of homeowners have a housing loan, they'll be the ones benefiting directly. Investors will not pass on any savings to renters and those owning outright will see a savings hit, going backwards.

We've just starting seeing some minor impact on lowering housing prices making it easier for people to buy a place. For example

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-31/regional-victoria-house-prices-drop-worst-performing-market-2024/104740132

That combined with a reduced immigration rate should see property prices at least stabilise at the stupid levels they're at now, rather then keep increasing and making it worse.

Cheaper interest rates might give a small short term sugar hit to a few but cheap interest rates are a sign of structural and dysfunctional failure, they allow people to do stupid shit they should not, like constantly bid up housing prices. We have loose lending laws, as the IMF has pointed out for years, compounding the problem and a buch of other dunmb shit like first home owners grants all making it worse.

We have a planet being destroyed before our eyes and we're getting a nation of fools electing donkeys. Nothing new under the sun there though.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 week ago

The two party preferred polling rarely exceeds like 4 percentage points difference between ALP/Coalition, if only 10% of home owners notice a difference and shift their vote it's back towards a likely ALP victory.