this post was submitted on 26 Dec 2024
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Six months is a long time in politics, and Albo’s popularity has slipped considerably since then. A lot of those mid-suburban seats that Labor unexpectedly swept in the last election will be up in the air, and electoral funding reforms are likely to hit the teals hard, to the conservatives’ advantage.
IIRC July was also at the start of the CFMEU allegations, before the corrupt government administration came into effect.
The CFMEU had around 125,000 members as of a year ago, and obviously we can't assume they'll all follow their leaders' advice and swing lefter-than-Labor but having seen the huge presence of other union members marching along side them and having seen the former Labor supporters in my union express their shock and betrayal, there's a real chance of that big chunk of the labour movement abandoning Labor.
The observation I found most interesting here is obvious but hadn't occurred to me. That is that the RBA is going to find it increasingly difficult to justify not reducing interest rates going into the election. As much as that has almost nothing to do with the government if voters are feeling economic pressures lifting and the ALP can get some media traction with it they've got a chance.
Only 1/3 of homeowners have a housing loan, they'll be the ones benefiting directly. Investors will not pass on any savings to renters and those owning outright will see a savings hit, going backwards.
We've just starting seeing some minor impact on lowering housing prices making it easier for people to buy a place. For example
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-31/regional-victoria-house-prices-drop-worst-performing-market-2024/104740132
That combined with a reduced immigration rate should see property prices at least stabilise at the stupid levels they're at now, rather then keep increasing and making it worse.
Cheaper interest rates might give a small short term sugar hit to a few but cheap interest rates are a sign of structural and dysfunctional failure, they allow people to do stupid shit they should not, like constantly bid up housing prices. We have loose lending laws, as the IMF has pointed out for years, compounding the problem and a buch of other dunmb shit like first home owners grants all making it worse.
We have a planet being destroyed before our eyes and we're getting a nation of fools electing donkeys. Nothing new under the sun there though.
The two party preferred polling rarely exceeds like 4 percentage points difference between ALP/Coalition, if only 10% of home owners notice a difference and shift their vote it's back towards a likely ALP victory.
Those electoral funding reforms don't come into effect until after the next election IIRC.
It will be interesting to see if the Teals revert to Libs or if they can hold or even expand their footprint.
i really wish particularly in brisbane teals would run against the greens in the inner city, feel like a teal/labor qld would be best