this post was submitted on 08 Nov 2024

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Does the increase in early/mail-in voting make exit polls less accurate? (self.nostupidquestions)

submitted 2 weeks ago by rdrunner to c/nostupidquestions

8 comments fedilink hide all child comments

With the post election analysis going on right now, there seems to be a ton of weight being put behind exit polling (so and so got x% of women voters, etc) to the point where they just are presented as fact. As early voting and mail-in voting increases around the country, aren't those exit polls getting more and more unreliable? I don't see that discussion happening anywhere and perhaps I have a misunderstanding of what an exit poll even is. I've never been polled in any way after voting myself and as I understand it polling is already not as reliable as they're presented. So should we put as much trust into these exit polls?

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[–] givesomefucks 11 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Not really.

There's have to be a population where a large amount not only voted that way, but when they voted that way it was statistically different.

Like, there may very well be something where a population like women voted differently by mail because their husbands watch.

But in my state someone is allowed to "help" so the couple in front of me the man voted, then went to the woman's booth and "helped" her.

All while outside the cops talked to a screaming red hatter who apparently had to turn his trump shirt inside out and when he did poll workers say the multiple hand guns in his waistband.

Don't worry tho, the poll workers let him skip the line and vote while the cops showed up and talked to him for 2 minutes before letting him drive off.

So before you think of what shady shit may happen with mail in, you need to realize plenty of shady shit happens day of too.

[–] rdrunner 4 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

I don't so much mean weird situations, but perhaps just the demographics get skewed. Now that I think about it, I perhaps have a dumber question:

What the hell are exit polls are how are they conducted? The name implies they're conducting with folks leaving the polls, but if they're voting at home then how are they polled? This could also just simply boil down to why do we trust polls so much anyways

[–] givesomefucks 6 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Yeah, exit polling is literally asking people as they walk out of the polls

This could also just simply boil down to why do we trust polls so much anyways

Statistical analysis is a science.

The problem is it's not taught in k-12 and most never learn it in college

So people don't understand it, media represents it however they'll get the most clicks/views.

The problem with polling isn't polling, it's the media's and viewers' misinterpreting the results that's the problem

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Completely agree on people not understanding statistics. See: most of the polls showing a slight edge to Harris, but with a 3 to 4 point margin of error, being taken to mean that Harris had it in the bag.

SOMETHING HAPPENING 49 OUT OF 100 TIMES IS STILL VERY LIKELY!

[–] givesomefucks 2 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

The craziest part is stats isn't even complicated.

We could teach it to 6th graders and they'd do fine, same with logic classes.

The point of school isn't teaching kids to think, it's teaching them to follow directions, two very different things.

Just look at what we teach them.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 weeks ago

Primary and secondary schooling is just practice to be good little worker bees. That's why conservatives view college/tertiary school as iNdOctrINATIOn cEntERS

[–] XeroxCool 2 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

It likely skews data in conservative states, but likely not by much. At least in 2020, mail-in voting was presented as the greatest boogeyman to ever threaten the GOP that week. That pushed conservative voters to vote in person in conservative states and make a big show about how much more reliable and traceable it was. Democrats already trusted the mail-in option. Conservatives in my blue area were not as polarized by this threat, in my observation, and still used the mail-in option. I imagine they knew they'd be overrun in the electoral vote so it didn't matter if the popular vote was accurate or not.

This time around, I'm out of the Reddit loop and I'm not subjected to Fox News every day, so I'm not as in touch with the vibe.

I don't know how I feel about the idea that conservative men create that much change by overwatching wives. I am not saying it doesn't happen, but if these wives' outspoken comments are believed to be true, then they're indoctrinated before voting, not coerced in the booth. Reddit and Lemmy skews left and secular, so I feel they both underestimate the power of promising more Christianity, the power of making women beleive abortions are murder (but theirs can be repented or explained), that undocumented aliens are taking their tax money and all in murderous gangs, and that women can't even lead. Ask their opinion of Hillary Clinton and they'll tell you she's a bitch. Then ask why. You might get something about Benghazi and not satisfying Bill, but that's probably it. Her looks? Her voice? Nothing concrete.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 weeks ago

The polls were historically accurate this election. Most swingstates were predicted within 2% margin.