Those leaders are falling like flies; Iran's entire proxy network has been systematically dismantled over the last year. Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis are all a shadow of what they were very recently.
this post was submitted on 17 Oct 2024
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Unfortunately, I don’t see it making Israeli civilians safer in the medium term due to the brutality of the wars. Israel can kill every Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthi leader but if the civilian deaths are disproportionate, new groups will form. Individuals will seek their own revenge. Israel is arguably as isolated diplomatically as it’s ever been.
It seems like a very short term victory that will undermine any chance for lasting peace.
Hopefully we will also see their ally Russia dismantled in the coming year.
All which might cause the weakening of Turkish forces in Syria and the demise of Assad.
Things are much more complicated than "all friends of Russia"
Russia and Iran are competing over influence in Syria. This is why Russia let Israel bomb Iran affiliated groups in Syria. In return Israel sent drones to Russia, didnt join Russian sanctions, and demanded Ukraine to surrender when Russia started the full blown invasion.
Israel is closely allied with Azerbaidschan, having provided much of the drones that were used to fuck Armenia and ethnically cleanse Berkarabach. In return they get most of their Oil from Azerbaidschan and offered it to exploit the Gas fields in front of Gaza that Israel wants to steal.
However Azerbaidschan is also a close ally of Turkey, which is pushed to end its complicity with Israel while the rethoric is much harsher already. Turkey is invading northern Syria, which neither Iran nor Russia like, but Russia also needs Turkey for trade, while Turkey is in NATO...
And that is just beginning to scratch the surface.
I agree it's more complicated, but it doesn't change what I wrote.
A weaker Iran means a weaker Russia and vice versa.
If both are weakened, Assad is weakened.
But I guess it's not as clear cut with Turkey. Although the Kurds will have an easier time when they won't have to fight Iranian, Syrian and Russian forces along with Turkish ones. And a weakening of Iran will also weaken Iranian-affiliated Iraqi militias that are also attacking Kurds.
Russia didn't let Israel, one of their bases were shot at for 40 minutes straight as a warning.
They also got a bunch of other warnings before and after. Russia won't waste their time on this when they're already losing so much in the war with Ukraine.
Both Russia and Iran helped Assad in the civil war.
Israel is allied with Azerbaijan because of their border with Iran.
Turkey was already assisting Hamas even before. They'll keep trade with Israel behind the scenes for economic reasons like they've always done.
And at the moment Russia is assisting Turkey in bombing the Kurds.
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Yeah, it seems the only win the axis of resistance has experienced over the past year is Israel’s tanking international reputation, and that’s far more the result of Israel’s actions than anything the AoR has done.
Israels economy is also tanking heavily. They have lost some 80 billion over the past year. Their "reverse migration" is stronger than ever.
Unless the West destroys the ICC, Israeli politicians and soldiers could face a trial that will make Nuremberg look like district court, especially as IDF proudly films and shares their war crimes online.
Israel has dived down the deep fascist end. This means political violence and murder will skyrocket. Someone who is used to getting away with murdering women and children and gettin praised for it instead of punished, will slaughter his wife and kids too if they dont obey. You know how femicide and domestic violence are rampant among cops? And only few of them have killed someone.
Once societies go down such a route there is no stopping them until they fall apart. Question is if it will meam genocide to thousands, hundreds of thousands or millions.
that’s far more the result of Israel’s actions than anything the AoR has done.
I mean it was Hamas fighting until this October, and I don't think anyone was expecting Hamas to beat Israel in a straight fight. Hezbollah will probably do better in a defensive war, but even then they won't deal the kind of serious damage you're expecting, and that was never the point.
You talk about Israel's international reputation tanking like it's a minor occurence, but the change in Western public opinion over the past year is big. Expect a lot of change in Israeli-Western relations in the next 20 years as the next generation gains more power in politics and the older generations more likely to support Israel die off.
Expect a lot of change in Israeli-Western relations in the next 20 years
I wouldn't count on it. Western attention spans are nowhere near long enough for that.
They are occasionally. It depends on the event involved and the alignment of the stars, among other things. More seriously Israel's image in Western consciousness has permanently changed. Western attention spans would come into play if there was a default state, which isn't really the case here.
Expect a lot of change in Israeli-Western relations in the next 20 years as the next generation gains more power in politics and the older generations more likely to support Israel die off.
This is reminiscent of “just wait for the older generations to die off so we can finally elect more progressive candidates” I’ve been told of for the past 20 years. Meanwhile, it seems reactionaries are doing better than they have in decades the world around. I hope you’re right, but I’m not optimistic.
This is reminiscent of “just wait for the older generations to die off so we can finally elect more progressive candidates” I’ve been told of for the past 20 years.
I mean this does, to an extent, hold true in the US. The GOP's voter base is dying off and the country is bluer than ever. If Harris didn't insist on taking over Biden's most unpopular policies this wouldn't even be a contest. That said, I will acknowledge that I might be looking at things too optimistically.
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Hamas yeah, Hezbollah and the Houthis? I haven't seen any indication of that. The war with Hezbollah just started and the Houthis dealt a lot more damage to Israel than they took from Western airstrikes.
The US has been hitting any Houthi poking their head above ground for the last year. Their available munitions and fighters are drastically reduced. You don't see them landing helicopters on civilian tankers anymore, no, now you see B2 bombers blowing up their hideouts.
Hezbollah is even worse off. Israel compromised their supply lines and blew up huge portions of their leadership up and down the chain. They then were forced to meet in person, where even more of their leadership exploded via air-dropped bombs. No, they won't recover for years. And this is while Israel launched a ground invasion destroying even more of their capability.
I haven't seen anyone talking about that. Where did you find this information?
Which part? B2 strikes on the Houthis happened this week.
I know about the airstrikes and about how Israel has been assassinating Hezbollah leadership, but not much I've seen talked about how much damage these actions are causing on the ground, and nothing said the Houthis or Hezbollah were shadows of their former selves.
What about the imperial proxy network that's invading the middle east with genocide, terrorism, kidnapping, SA, child abuse, etc.?
They seem to be doing fine. Bibi appears to be cultivating a forever war so he can stay in power indefinitely.
Now get Netanyahu and Gallant for killing 30,000 Palestinians and we might see peace.
Israel was never interested in peace.
Yikes, very NSFW pic of a corpse in that article.
I didn't know Sinwar was even in Gaza. Wasn't he hiding in Qatar?
Nope, he was always in Gaza.
Mousa abu Marzouk and Khaled Mashaal are the ones in Qatar (and previously, Haniyeh).
Ah, thanks for clarifying.
Sinwar has been hiding in the tunnels for years. He doesn't use a phone and very rarely goes above ground, making him very hard to track.
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Israeli propaganda. He got taken out in fatigues fighting Israel with his last breath in Gaza, throwing a stick at a drone, surrounded by the rubble of a battlefield.
So that means Israel will cease their genocide, right?
Nah, the good thing about killing the leader is that there's always the next one to go after. So don't worry, they'll bomb more babies.
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Hopefully now a better future for Palestinians and Israelis is ahead.
Once the leader who murdered 30,000 Palestinian civilians is brought to justice, maybe.
Remember kids, you already know what Palestine without Hamas looks like: is the apartheid regime of the West Bank!
1 died, 10 others will be born. This will continue until the Palestinians have their land and rights back.
This is simply a statement of fact: "Palestinians say drone footage shows Sinwar's 'heroic' final moments in Gaza".
This is not how peace will come. "You can do many things with bayonets except sit on them." ~ Talleyrand
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