Now what?
What's the strategic payoff here?
this post was submitted on 12 Aug 2024
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They've crippled the only gas line to the EU and annexed a shit ton of land. I'd say that payoff was huge.
That gas line goes right into Ukraine, they could have blown it up anytime they wanted safely in their own territory. So I'm not sure that makes much sense. They have not done this previously to avoid angering EU allies funding them, as some still rely on it.
I think more likely explanations are it helps make it easier to strike and and shut down a very important rail route for Russian re supply, it brings the war to the Russian people in a way they can't ignore, makes Putin look weak, draws Russian troops away from other fronts, and if the land is held gives Ukraine a bargaining chip in any future negotiations with Russia.
Blowing it up on their side leaves them with massive environmental damage, possible fire, and cleanup.
Doing it this way avoids that.
Fuck any country who gets gas from Russia. You've had two years to figure shit out. Tough titty.
How? Did they shut off gas to the EU?
Yep. And blew up what I gather are the two main buildings that housed the controls from the satellite photos I saw
Oh I didn’t know that. The Ukrainians and Russians have more or less mutually agreed not to mess with the gas supply thus far, since it benefits them both
I am not a military strategist, but I would guess that the territory will be used as leverage in negotiations for a cease fire. They probably cannot hold the region indefinitely, but they can push the boundaries and make Putin look weaker. They can also force Russia to move invasion forces to defend.
And that's without factoring in the geographic and political implications in occupying the region.
Or - and hear me out - they go all the way to Moscow and overthrow the government.
No more war, problem solved!
I mean, invading Russia in the winter months doesn't sound like a good idea to me.
If they skedaddle in a timely manner, they may end up with a morale-booster, and embarrassment for Putin, and an easing of pressure somewhere along the line due to the need for Russia to pull troops to retake this "little patch of ground that hath no profit in it but the name."
If they stay and get wiped out, then I am not at all sure it will have been worth it.
If they stay and shift Russia firepower to having to blow up their own towns for a change, its also worthwhile. That might also limit the sort of arsenal Russia uses, and give them a buffer from attacks on Ukraine. They'll need to build significant defenses though.
Russia seemed to be planning to open another front on the Ukrainian side of the border here, so this has spiked that, seized the gas line, provided potentially 'swappable' territory, embarrassed the kremlin and diverted Russian reinforcements from other fronts.
W-we didn't want that Oblast anyway.
- Putin, probably
Putin said Ukraine may have hoped the attack would cause public unrest in Russia, but that it has failed to do so, and he claimed the number of volunteers to join the Russian military has increased because of the assault.
I highly doubt it isn’t creating unrest when 100k people have been evacuated.
Almost 200k even