this post was submitted on 10 Apr 2024
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[–] jordanlund 19 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago) (2 children)

Sotomayor isn't even the oldest person on the court.

Thomas, 75 6/23/1948
Alito, 74 4/1/1950
Sotomayor, 69 6/25/1954
Roberts, 69 1/27/1955
Kagan, 63 4/28/1960
Kavanaugh, 59 2/12/1965
Gorsuch, 56 8/29/1967
Jackson, 53 9/14/1970
Barrett, 52 1/28/1972

Here's the thing though... Thomas and Alito aren't going willfully under a Democratic President, just will not happen.

That would throw the court from 6-3 Conservative back to 5-4 Liberal.

But even if that did happen, the next two oldest are Sotomayor and Roberts, one Liberal and one fairly reliable swing vote.

So we can't just maintain a Democratic president through Thomas an Alito, which is likely to be at least the next two Presidential terms (24-28, 28-32), but beyond that to possibly '36 or even '40.

[–] zeppo 23 points 7 months ago (1 children)

She does have Type 1 Diabetes though, which unfortunately means an average mortality of 10 years earlier than someone without it. Of course, that's just an average.

[–] jordanlund 9 points 7 months ago (1 children)

Yeah, but someone with her level of health care and ethnic background? She's got a good 11 years left before it's a problem.

So we need to make sure the 2032 election goes to a Democrat and the Senate that year too. ;) Roberts will be on the block around then as well.

[–] cyd 13 points 7 months ago (2 children)

We can argue actuarial tables all day, but the point is that replacing Sotomayor with a younger liberal justice has zero downside. It's as close to a free lunch as one can get in politics.

[–] JustZ 2 points 7 months ago

Avoiding political wrangling is why they are lifetime appointments, for better or worse.

[–] jordanlund 1 points 7 months ago

Oh, agreed, zero downside, but there's no point calling for it at this time. Let's focus more on re-electing Biden.

[–] Fredselfish 4 points 7 months ago (1 children)

They old enough maybe we get lucky and they have a stroke or something else. 74 not young.

[–] jordanlund 2 points 7 months ago

I mean, they do have the best health care you can get. Look at someone like Sandra Day O'Connor, lived to 93. Fortunately she stepped down in 2006 when she was 76.