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I think your first point is probably the main one that affects this. People are in a good position generally as they get older so they don't wanna rock the status quo. But with all the warning bells going off about how Millennials and Gen Z are never gonna be able to afford houses or be able to retire that is indicating the shift might not happen. Cause if they don't have anything to maintain then why would they shift conservative?
Very true. In his new book (which I've only heard except from so far), Fareed Zakaria argues that the left/right split as defined since WW2 is being re-defined and I think we can all see that. It used to be that the left had the "radical" ideas and the right supported the status quo. Now, the left (the Democrats or their equivalent in other countries, not what Lemmy considers the left) is the status quo and the right is adopting radical reactionary ideas to destroy the new status quo and return to the 1950s.
So, yes, I agree with you that if Millenials and Gen Z are not able to generate wealth for themselves, they will not support the status quo. Whether that rejection of the status quo will correspond to what we today call "left" and "right" is uncertain since there is a major shift underway right now as we speak.