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Russia is returning to its Cold War posture with plans to increase troops along its NATO borders, Lithuania's PM warns
(www.businessinsider.com)
this post was submitted on 23 Mar 2024
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Here's my prediction for historical purposes:
That's it. That's my prediction based on having lived through the cold war and being interested in history.
I really fucking hope I'm wrong.
Here's where you're wrong: Finland. It provides easy striking distance for St Petersburg and Murmansk (which is an important naval base). Hit St Petersburg, and the Baltic states are at far less risk of being cut off.
Strike Sevestapol, and Russia is cut off from the Atlantic.
Balarus isn't guaranteed to stay a Russian ally, either. That's Lukashenko's thing, but his grip on power could still slip away.
I hear you but Russia has made it clear that any existential threat will result in nuclear war so that rules out going onto their internationally recognised land without risking that.
Taking back invaded land is a different matter as we've seen.
Edit: And I've limited understanding on this but I thought Belarus had already agreed to become part of the Russian federation. I hold out hope they'll move back to democracy and agree that would definitely change things strategically.
putin said that, kill him and his generals aren't going to stay behind to a dead guy
A fucking wrong sneeze on Russian soil is enough for a nuclear threat. If he's going to do it, we can't do shit about it anyway, because he's going to use all excuses left in the book. He's going to spin some narrative and either Russians will actually grow a spine and refuse the order - or won't.
The only thing we can hope is, that they didn't change the plutonium in the warheads so they are all duds.
I agree that's probably the plan.
The problem with that plan is that nuclear NATO countries have a very clear policy of launching in case of a NATO country being invaded. And nobody expects a nuke not to be met with more nukes.
Russian subs are shit. And won't be able to stop Western naval power.
Every warm water Russian port is well within bombing range.
The US is setup to fight a two front war. And it's not even on a war production footing.
We're under no obligation to strike back in the Baltics. We could easily snap an alliance with Ukraine, and unleash the F-35 and B-21 on that very large front. Russian supplies, and command, will cease to exist over night. And their front lines shortly thereafter. Their Air Force couldn't get superiority against Ukraine. They aren't going to last five minutes against the US Air Force and Navy. (The Marine planes will be busy teaching the Chinese the same lesson)
That’s a pretty reasonable prediction; I’d add that the optimal time would be year 3 of a trump presidency.
you are puting to much faith in their organizational capability, also logistics, the same argument was made for the 3 days military operation, also putin is going to be dead by them
I am woundering when russia decides to use tactical nukes in Ukraine. - the way they are gonnna spin the last terrorist attack( assuming its not an inside job..prob is.) sure does not give me warm fuzzy feelings about their desparation....
I feel like it's an inevitability, personally. They'll call it territorial defense, given their claims on Donetsk and Luhansk and / or in the opening shots of a NATO war to show they mean business.
I feel they missed the window for this after the Kharkiv withdrawal. At this point the US has made it clear they would respond with conventional strikes on military targets.