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To me the single uniting thread between all the different narratives Trump attempts to weave is simply: he thinks the vast majority of voters are really, really dumb.
Sadly, given that he consistently has the absolute support of about 1/3 of the Republican party (about 1/6 of the country), and the moderately strong support of another 1/3 of the Republican party, that's not the far from reality.
Your idea is right, but your numbers about population are wrong. Republicans definitely don’t make up 50% of the country given that your voter turnout for presidential elections tends around 50-60% and many who vote Republican in a given year are independent or swing voters who aren’t rusted-on voters. It’s hard to get a 100% clear number on it, but I’d estimate that Republicans only make up around 20-25% of the country at most.
It only seems like they’re 50% of people because they win a lot of elections, but a lot of that has to do with the Electoral College, First Past the Post voting, and a lack of mandatory voting coupled with low voter turnout.
Well, if we are talking about Rapey McTinyD's base, then he's not wrong.