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Well, maybe it's not a binary choice, but it is certainly a choice that does exist.
Well...yes...with the implication that Biden's unpopularity is a boon for his political opposition. Maybe not Trump per se, but certainly Biden v Republicans.
I thought you said it wasn't about this...
Anyway...by sheer political inertia, Biden has an institutional advantage against any Republican contender. Like...before we argue about anything, Biden's chances of winning are better simply by default. You have the burden of proving that he's so weak as a candidate that even that advantage is gone. No one ever makes that argument, they just assert it as true. But I'm not convinced it is.
The weird thing is that this isn't Biden's fault...well...not entirely his fault. A podcast I listen to every now and then said that this is the era of business, and I'm inclined to agree. American Free Enterprise is all about value extraction, and they've been so successful that Trump sells pieces of his suit at $5000 a piece to fools and it's totally okay. Business values have effectively superseded political values, and there's a lot of people responsible for that.
I don't disagree with anything else you said.