this post was submitted on 08 Aug 2023
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politics
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I think it's important to remember how close the election in 2020 was. Just looking at the popular vote:
81,282,916 for Biden 74,223,369 for Trump
46.9% of the people who voted wanted more of the same. I don't think that number has dropped much since then.
Trump still has the support of almost half the people in the United States. It might be easier mentally to forget that, but we can't let up. We have to treat the next election and every other election like our lives depend on it!
Suggesting that somehow ~62% of the Trump supporters from 2020 suddenly came to their senses seems pretty damn farfetched. If 10% of the people who voted for Biden in 2020 decide they don't need to bother in 2024 because "Republicans have near zero support", then Trump could win.
Personally, I believe if we have the same desperate need to defeat Trump in 2024, and drive turnout to the same degree, there might be a few percentage points increase in favor of Biden. If we relax and assume it's already won, we'll have another four years of Trump.