Statistics isn't my strong suit. What's the probability of the probability increasing given that it has been increasing over time? Should we project the future probability to include this growth?

[–] bandwidthcrisis 5 points 2 days ago

Scott Manley said in his video that it would almost certainly increase right up to a point where it would (probably) drop to 0.

Imagine the asteroid position is going to be in a range 1 to 100. Earth will be at position 31 when passes. That's a 1% chance.

Now I tell you that it's actually a 10 to 90 range ( like they predict the asteroid a bit more precisely).

The chance is now 1 in 80 or 1.25% It went up!

Now I say I've got more info, the number is 30 to 70. The chance is 1/40, 2.5% time to panic, it's getting worse!

Next it's 40 to 70. That doesn't include 31. The chance just dropped to 0.

So the increase is showing a more accurate prediction still includes hitting earth, but at some point that prediction might show that it will miss.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 days ago

Really no idea personally. My hunch would be that it’s technically a fuzzy problem (what’s the system being measured here exactly?) but also one around which we have some experience and wisdom established by now. Otherwise, the probability has changed like twice or three times, so any statistical inference would likely be close to meaningless with that little data.