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Of the handful of people I know of, most were retiring anyway. They're basically getting 7 months of paid leave. I wished one person a happy retirement last week and then "welcome back" this week. They're working until the end of February.
Of the one person I know that isn't eligible for retirement, they were planning on leaving anyway due to circumstances in their family.
What I'm interested in is how many of those people will be back by October as contractors. I've seen it before where someone retires and then a few months later they're back working in a similar job. Just because someone leaves gov services doesn't mean their skill sets aren't in demand.
That was going to be my second question- how many were not retiring, but were planning on leaving for other reasons? How many had a new job lined up before Trump even took office?
These idiots put no restrictions on this offer. And despite that, 75,000 is still far lower than the number of federal employees who retired per year in the past 10 years according to OPM.
https://www.opm.gov/retirement-center/retirement-statistics/
So that means even plenty of people who would entirely benefit from this offer at no risk to themselves are telling Trump to go fuck himself.
Does this mean historical knowledge will leave quickly leaving gaps in how or why things work?
I don't know if I can give a straight answer. Agencies and their divisions, orgs, branches, teams have to do records management. There's a federal law somewhere in the federal registrar. So a certain amount of historical knowledge is preserved. Where, how well, and how far back is a bunch of rabbits holes.
But what I think you might be getting at is tribal knowledge. Everything that's passed around orally or by experience rather than being written down. There's always that risk with people leaving and that knowledge going with them. But that impact can vary depending on agency practices, work culture, or even just the responsibilities of the person leaving.
The area I'm keeping an eye on are the people with decades of knowledge and experience that are also skilled enough to apply all that to their niche fields within an agency. They're usually the ones in federal service for the long haul and are some of the more difficult people to get time with. If an agency is gutted and that living knowledge base is lost then the agency will struggle to fulfill the missions Congress has directed they must do as federal law.
"Tribal knowledge" is exactly what I was trying to express. I've been called back to consult with previous jobs because even though everything was fully documented, systems change over time and not everyone knows how to reconnect the pieces once that happens.
This is going to be a huge mess for you guys and I'm really not sure what the best play is. In some cases, letting things fail that slow negative progress is better in the long run. In other cases, failure is exactly what this administration is looking for.
You seem to have a very good grasp of how things work there. I hope there are enough bright people like you to navigate this in the best way possible.