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Texas immediately invades smallest Southern states
New Mexico turns off the Pecos and Rio Grande
Fuck off.
I don't think that's quite how it would play out.
Texas has long been aching to leave the US. They've setup all sorts of their infrastructure and economy to not be dependent on the rest of the US.
Many southern states, particularly Oklahoma, fantasize that they're part of that. When Texas leaves, they will expect to join. But Texas views them as freeloaders.
It's possible Texas invades to steal resources, but they don't want the land or the people. More likely it's the reverse - The poor states (now extremely poor, since they won't be getting all that juicy federal money) will be envious of Texas's wealth, and may invade to claim some of it for themselves.
Interesting considering the tech oligarchs have been relocating their business structure (incorporation, etc) to Texas.
Very few companies are making business decisions on the possibility of the US collapsing. Those are all decisions made on the current state of affairs.
The tech oligarchs are orchestrating the collapse
I just wish they would stop threatening to leave, and just don't finally, so we can wall them off.
A d Texas won't, because their "giant economy" is all federal funded aerospace and defense.
I remember how much they whined when Fort Cavazos was considering shutting down. Three cities would have died almost overnight if it happened.
You reached the right conclusion, but muddied your own waters.
Texas would invade to steal and subjugate. Texan "leaders" wants slaves and resources and New Mexico, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Louisiana are right on the doorstep.
Best things to come out of Texas? I25. They're welcome to try.
I don't think invasion is the first step after the dissolution of the US. I think Texas becomes the new center of a southern entity for the reasons mentioned, but the other southern territories becomes vassal states to Texas. Many of the southern states rely heavily on federal aid to exist. Texas will leverage this to use Georgia, Tennessee, Louisiana, maybe South Carolina (plus those you mention) as near slave labor to feed its wealth and influence. As a new constitution is negotiated Texas will emerge as the center of a christofascist nation. Florida maintains a tenuous parity with Texas until rising seas make it uninhabitable. They then plead with the great Texas union to provide aid at which point they become subjugated the same as the others.
On thing is for sure, they'd fix immigration overnight. No one would be trying to escape TO The Holy Christian Union of Texas.
Come to think of it, the first post US armed conflict will likely be the HCUT pushing into Mexico as it grabs for the Panama canal and eventually the natural resources of South America.
I wish I was more creative. I'd love to write a post-American fictional novel.
As USSR's breakup shows, withdrawal syndrome will be harsher than imagined for all sides of the events. In 1991, as you might know, the universal understanding was that now, when inefficient Soviet planned economy will finally die, life will start, because we have all these universities, all these chemical and electronic industries, all that in our republic, not like some cotton harvesters in Middle Asia, right? Except those all existed in the context of the Soviet economy, with that just being abruptly killed the only things that really survived were Soviet elites and crime. Since that's who were leading the transition, that was a sacrifice they were willing to make.
So, in comparison, the idea of anschlussing Canada and Mexico and what not may not be worse.