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I mean if the current style of government continue for like 20 years you'll start seeing breakaways, but definitely nothing within these four years unless something really dramatic happens. The Democrat-led states are at least as docile as the people living in them, so I can't imagine them leading a breakaway movement. I mean can you imagine someone like Newsom saying "hell yeah let's secede"?
Okay yeah I get you now.
I think you have a good point but I do think it could be sooner. If Newsom thinks Trump may cause more damage to to his state than aid (I'm thinking about lack of disaster relief, draining of reservoirs, sending military in to deal with protests, raiding schools for illegal immigrants, stifling scientific research, going after "woke" speech), what choice will he have ?
Already, schools in Massachusetts are informing school nurses not to comply with ICE if they come through. What happens when Trump says that Massachusetts is defying the law and goes after leadership there? Will Massachusetts bend?
But I think ultimately you may be right, I suppose it might depend on how antagonistic Trump is toward blue states.