this post was submitted on 13 Jan 2025
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What makes you believe Friendica won’t surpass Facebook?
I do not think decentralized social media will ever grab the masses. It can be confusing, which server do I join? Why that one vs this one?
Good grief, this argument seriously makes me want to pull my hair out...
"Which [email] server do I join? Why that one vs this one?"
Man, people got used to having the whole internet in their pocket from barely knowing it existed in like 15 years. There are already cultural metaphors for federation. People will grok that shit in no time when they need to. But it will take the network effect forcing them to learn it that will get people over the hill.
Sounds more like we would go back to forums.
I think "forums" is what Lemmy kinda shoulda been. I've had people argue against me at this point, but...
lemmy.nsfw and the other couple of porn instances are the only ones that are focused by topic. Everybody else tries to be a general purpose instance, which results in that "Which instance do I pick? Will it matter being on sh.itjust.works or lemmy.world?" issue and the "there are currently 94 communities with the name Linux, 20 with more than 250 subscribers and 12 that have seen some kind of activity in the last month" issues.
Lemmy could be used like a good old forum engine. Create an instance around a particular branch of discussion, but now they're federated.
I am down. I miss forums (as long as it is not tapatalk.)
Initially no real reason. Eventually you discover ones with administrators you vibe with and communities and users you like. But till then, maybe server capacity?
I get that, you get that, but the masses will not understand that.
Do they need to? How did people decide on MSN vs AIM vs ICQ? Google vs Yahoo? Ventrillo or Team speak? Skype vs Zoom vs Discord. They will go where their friends are primarily. And what suits their needs generally. Federation isn't anything truly new. The massive centralized servers were. The fediverse is a return to form. Only better. Be on the service and server that suit you. No missing out.
I liked yahooIM and AIM, but I also had MSN Messanger.
I liked YIMs buzz feature. Imagine no matter what you're doing, the audio mutes for a brief second, you hear a loud doorbell, and your whole screen, not just yahooIM, YOU COULD EVEN HAVE THE WINDOW MINIMIZED!!!! Your whole screen would shake.
It was very intrusive. I loved it.
Oh definitely. But those of us that multi-messenger were definitely the exception not the rule.
At first, the internet was for nerds only and not "for the masses". Then corporations realized there was a lot of money to be made, and they forced user-friendliness on it. And then the masses came.
Don't worry, in two decades we'll have Fediverse 3.0 which will just be a balkanized assortment of sites that don't communicate with each other and are worth trillions, all owned by people who bafflingly support President Kid Rock.
Because I have never even heard of friendica
I haven’t heard of Lemmy until the api changes.
And Reddit is still in no danger of being overtaken by Lemmy.
I beg to differ as the amount of registered users is steadily increasing, the instance servers are much more stable and the third-party apps have added tons of features.
You must be looking at different numbers than me because Lemmy has nowhere near the number of members as Reddit and it’s not even close.
Lemmy has 468k users while Reddit has 1.22b users. It’s catching up.
Reddit has 2,500x more users and Lemmy is "catching up"? Optimistic.
Glass Joe vs Mahamad Ali.
People will start to notice. Build it and they will come.
I’d also wager the proportion of human users is much higher on Lemmy.
Are you being sarcastic right now or do you think 468k users is anywhere near comparable to 1.22 billion users?
Also even that number of Lemmy users is an artifact of people leaving instances and creating new accounts across the Fediverse. I have 3 accounts myself that I check usually once a month, bc messages sent to my old one(s) won't follow me so it's the only way to make sure that someone trying to reach me can do so. And I had one on Kbin.social as well so there are now 4 OpenStars (3 looking to be active on a monthly basis) - and all of them are me!:-)
The better stat to use then is not Total Accounts but rather Monthly Active Users. In this, Lemmy has been steadily declining. We are now at <41.9k, after we held steady for awhile earlier this year at 45k. The peak after the Rexodus was ~52k - see https://fedidb.org/software/lemmy/, the number of instances has gone way down, the number of accounts per instance gone up, it looks like people are abandoning single-user instances in favor of the larger multi-user ones. But Lemmy.World used to hold ~80% of all Lemmy users while now it is closer to like 37% iirc, so overall we are becoming more centralized on average, but also stabilizing into a few established instances, and decentralization at the peak is also happening as well - especially after yesterday's announcement that will drive even more people, and entire communities, away from Lemmy.World further.
Overall engagement is up though - so more posts and comments from fewer people, those of us who remain here have become more active.
3 different accounts.....all the same guy......
GUYS!!! I FOUND MICK FOLEY!!!
HOW DID YOU... ah, uh, I mean nuh-uh! 🤥
These things take time. Reddit wasn’t popular at first.
Ok but there’s no indication currently that Lemmy is ever going to overtake Reddit. Im fine with that though.
They all say that before it happens.
I'm not answering that question. I'm answering whether this is the movement that dethrones it.
Probably not.