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I think we can look at the House of Representatives for a better representation of how moderate/progressive the electorate is. Where a statewide or national election requires a lot of money, a single district is much more accessible for a candidate with a smaller staff to campaign in.
I think the real crux of our problem is the distance between how people feel about individual progressive policies vs how they feel about progressive people who espouse all those policies. The right has been very successful at linking the culture war issues to progressives and demonizing them as SJWs, to distract from actual policy proposals.
I don't think that's entirely correct. If what you were saying about progressive politicians were true, Bernie Sanders would not be the most popular politician in the country. I think the real problem is that the Democrats are no longer credible messengers of a working class message. I think that's why Dan Osborne won by not only running as an independent, but flat out rejecting the local Democrats endorsement.
Also, it's important to remember that it was the centrists who pivoted towards culture war issues when they no longer had a progressive economic message they could run on. As Hillary Clinton said during the 2016 primary:
Bernie is the most popular politician in the country? Regardless though, what popularity he has does not extend to all people who espouse progressive ideas, so other factors are at play.
I also don't see that as a pivot as much as a slow march towards equal rights that dems have been fighting for for decades. And even so, it does not have much to do with the messaging strategy employed by the right. We're not fighting against facts, we're fighting against a messaging framework that paints progressive people as bad while ignoring the content of progressive policy proposals.
Yeah, Bernie is routinely ranked the most popular politician in America. I think it's also worth noting that, while conservative messaging is very good at making figures like AOC seem radical or extreme, it does the same to centrist figures like Pelosi or Obama; Republicans convinced themselves that Obama was a communist for continuing Bush's bank bailouts and implementing Mitt Romney's Healthcare plan. No matter what the Democrats do, the Republicans will paint them as radical leftists, so they might as well go for bold, popular policy agendas like Medicare for All or a $20 minimum wage rather than small incremental changes that voters don't understand or care about.