this post was submitted on 11 Nov 2024
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Miller was a senior adviser in Trump’s first term and has been a central figure in many of his policy decisions, notably his move to separate thousands of immigrant families as a deterrence program in 2018. Miller helped craft many of Trump’s hard-line speeches and plans on immigration.

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[–] [email protected] -5 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (4 children)

I think that Trump Term 2 is likely to look a lot like Trump Term 1.

Whether-or-not one calls that "that bad", of course, involves some matter of perspective. The article here is about a Term 1 guy coming back for Term 2, which is pretty much in line with things being like Term 1. I expect a lot of the same stuff that I didn't like the first time. I expect him to make outrageous statements, violate a lot of Presidential norms, probably do some questionable things legally to try to benefit himself. I expect him to play into conspiracy theory where he thinks it might benefit him. I expect him to make a lot of self-contradictory statements. I expect him to bluster and make crude statements. I expect him to be constantly in the news for doing something outrageous.

I expect that a lot of his outrageous statements are going to just be political theater, the same way they were the first time around. A lot of very firey talk about immigration and free trade agreements, making sure that he's seen by supporters saying things, not a lot of dramatic actual effective change in most policy.

I don't expect some of the predictions that are often thrown around here about the end of democracy or the free press or a long list of other things to come true.

One of the points that I want to see is what happens on Ukraine policy. This isn't a major popular issue for Republican voters the way policy on Israel is. Vance has been pretty vocal about opposing support for Ukraine, but I also don't know (1) the degree to which that is an actual concern for Vance, (2) the degree of influence that Vance will have, as the VP's power is usually almost entirely dependent on what the President wants to delegate to them and listen to them, and (3) the degree to which the bureaucracy will affect this, as politicians don't simply go craft foreign policy on their lonesome, and there are going to be a lot of the same domain experts that were present under Biden. It's possible that there could be very material impact for Ukraine, but I could also believe that the impact is muted.

My guess is that four years from now, I'm probably going to be pretty happy to see the last of him. But that was pretty much the case in 2020, and I remember no shortage of dire predictions in the opposing press and social media all through his first time through that didn't pan out.

[–] dhork 20 points 1 month ago (1 children)

We'll be lucky if term 2 is just like term 1. That would mean the ACA would survive, no detention camps would be built, and they don't find a way to deploy the US military to go grab the immigrants and put them into camps.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 month ago

We’ll be lucky if term 2 is just like term 1. That would mean the ACA would survive, no detention camps would be built, and they don’t find a way to deploy the US military to go grab the immigrants and any effective political opposition put them into camps.

Fixed that for you.

[–] WrenFeathers 16 points 1 month ago

Oh, it’s going to be a A LOT different.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 month ago

You have deluded yourself. You have not seen anything yet. A human piece of shit has been unleashed on this country with no checks or balances.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 month ago

oh great, so we can look forward to another horrifyingly mismanaged pandemic!

absolutely batshit crazy how nobody at all mentioned that not laid it at Trump's doorstep during the campaign