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Just the one! (lemmy.world)

submitted 2 weeks ago by InverseParallax to c/politicalmemes

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[–] [email protected] 13 points 2 weeks ago (9 children)

Biden got ~81m votes in 2020, Harris only got ~67m. >14m fewer people voted for her.

Trump also dropped by ~2m, only getting ~72m this time around vs. ~74m in 2020.

Trump didn’t win because of a giant right-wing national shift, he won because of voter apathy on the left.

[–] Resonosity 5 points 2 weeks ago (3 children)

I have to admit that I haven't delved into the exit polls and analyzed which social groups migrated right or not.

But one thing that's different about the 2024 election compared to 2020 is that COVID wasn't happening to the same degree. There were a ton more mail-in ballots 2020 due to social distancing, which helped both parties as a bump in votes.

Why use 2020 as a data point though? Why not 2016? Why not 2012 and 2008? Might those elections be slightly different because a 1-in-100-year pandemic wasn't happening?

If you compare those numbers, does the Dems' numbers compare to those elections?

I want to say someone on Lemmy already posted the numbers recently in one of these posts. From what I recall, Dems' votes returned close to pre-COVID levels albeit a degree lower, yet Reps' votes were above pre-COVID levels. Why?

Might the explanation be the societal shift towards the right?

And how can you not see the national shift to the right in how the Democrats speak to rallies and voters? We are considerably more right-wing as a country than ever in the recent decades. This election was a Republican primary with how Kamala ran on pre-Trump conservative values and policies.

Maybe apathy exists on the Left because it is increasingly the case that Democrats don't represent them anymore.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)

I used 2020 as a comparison for a few reasons;

It was the most recent result prior to the 2024 election, so it will have the most comparable demographics.
voting infrastructure from the COVID-era is still largely in place, allowing for more early and postal voting than pre-COVID. So earlier years are less comparable.
presidential elections are just as much about voting against the worse candidate, if not more-so, than voting for a preferred one.
both 2020 and 2024 could be seen as referendums on Trump’s policies, presidency and suitability for a second term.

Rather than looking at percentages, the individual counts are more important as they tell the underlying story.

The DNC’s GOTV campaign absolutely failed to motivate their base and undecided voters. Perhaps that was somewhat intentional, as a lot of the former GOP aligned ‘never-Trump’ campaign financiers have shifted to the Dems and have used their new-found influence to nudge the party’s platform rightward. The Cheney endorsements certainly didn’t do them any favours!

But looking at how even deep-red states have voted in support of abortion rights, shows that the general US populace is generally slowly drifting leftward - despite what the corporate-owned media narrative would have you believe.

[–] Resonosity 3 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

I'll agree with you on the 2020 voting laws carrying forward (although I haven't looked into the state laws, especially the red ones to see if those have been repealed yet because that's what tends to happen).

Also agreed on the DNC's and Harris' messaging. I also blame Biden because if we wanted to prepare to fight against Trump in the election where he was his most popular, the Dems would have ran an actual primary.

Definitely agreed too on the general sentiment of Americans supporting leftist policies. We see this with Bashear in Kentucky, and recently the middle wage and abortion policies in Missouri. Although you might be able to balance that by Florida's outcome with their referendums as well as California.

Ultimately it comes down to messaging and optics. Democrats need to figure out a way to package progressive policy in a way that capture the imaginations and hopes of their base while at the same time not scaring those towards the center into believing those same policies are socialist or communist.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 weeks ago

I’m not familiar with the California referendum in question, but Florida saw over 57% vote in favour of extending abortion rights.

The only reason it lost was because it required at least 60% to pass; instead Florida now gets to experience the tyranny of minority rule.

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