this post was submitted on 14 Oct 2024
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This is an opinion only. I wanted to preface it that way because I realized how much it sounded like I had inside knowledge. I do not. I'm a drunk, ignorant redneck.
I wouldn't put it past them, but those polls shouldn't move the needle very far at places like the silver bulletin or 538 because they weigh based on how trustworthy the polls are. Reputable polls aren't getting bought and fake polls may hit news articles but don't really hit forecasts very hard.
I've watched 538 since they came back online. There was a point where Kamala had greater than a 60 in 100 chance to win. Right now it's about as low as it has been with her up 53 to 46.
We're halfway through October so I have no idea if we're getting a surprise. I'd like to see something that tilts things blue.