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‘People should be making their contingency plans, like, right away’: America’s leading forecaster on the chances of a Trump win (www.theguardian.com)

submitted 1 month ago by [email protected] to c/news

55 comments fedilink hide all child comments

Just how useful is a forecast in a knife-edge election like this one, anyway? Even the insight that it could go either way is useful, Silver argues. “One potential advantage of having a forecast that says … it’s 50/50, is that people should be making their contingency plans, like, right away. It doesn’t mean you need [to stockpile] ammo and peanut butter” – that giggle again – “but it means, you know: what’s your strategy to protect American institutions in the event of a Trump second term? Or, in 2028 [or] 2032, a Trump-like Republican who maybe is more effective than Trump? If I were a liberal donor, for example, I would want to begin funding now … to protect institutions in that eventuality, instead of giving another $100,000 to Kamala Harris, who has more money than she needs.”

And while he fears a Trump win – “There were a lot of guardrails in place last time that prevented complete and utter disaster, but those guardrails have been weakened, right?” – he warns against painting it as an existential threat to democracy, at least as a political strategy. “The notion of basically holding voters hostage in that sense is very unappealing … Biden was like: ‘OK, sure, I may be running for president until I’m 86 and can barely form a complete sentence, but if you don’t vote for me, the country gets it’ – that’s a very unappealing message to swing voters … whereas Harris brings more joyfulness and is obviously a very talented woman”. He worries, though, that she has “retained too many of the Biden people who thought it was a good idea to keep running [him]. I guess she kind of had to.”

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[–] argarath 3 points 1 month ago (1 children)

That's why I suggested going to California first, there you can have enough time to get yourself a citizenship for a country that is actually better for you

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 month ago (1 children)

I can't afford to live in California, heck I can bearly afford to live where I currently live (New York)

[–] argarath 4 points 1 month ago (1 children)

California is a huge state, there are cheaper areas to live in, and new York isn't in that much of a risk of suddenly prosecuting queer people, even in a trump government. California is safer, yes, but New York isn't the boonies of Florida or Texas. If you don't mind, what are you afraid of in new york that you think you'll be safer in Israel of all places?

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 month ago

Trump using the executive branch to ban HRT