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Wasn't 2016 enough to show this fucking degenerate doesn't actually know what the fuck he's talking about?
He's too busy jerking off people like Peter Thiel and Marc Andreesen to be a serious commentator.
Not disputing the he’s an idiot, but 28% likelihood events happen about once out of every three times on average.
The image below is not direct an indication that he’s an idiot. That stuff that he writes in his book and that pours out of his mouth, yes, that’s another matter.
Yeah, I think people confuse win probabilities with polling percentages.
If a pollster predicted that ten races each had a Democratic win probability of 70%, and the Democrats won all ten of those races, that prediction would be wrong—as wrong as if the Republicans won six of the races.
He (and the rest of 538, where he was at the time) were criticized at the time for giving Trump much better odds than most. They were still wrong, but less so than the rest.
This sounds like conservatives who said Fauci was an idiot because he first said not to use masks, then to use masks all the time, then to use them if you are indoors or have a compromised immune system.
Making mistakes and correcting them with new data is a sign of intelligence not stupidity.