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Not disputing the he’s an idiot, but 28% likelihood events happen about once out of every three times on average.
The image below is not direct an indication that he’s an idiot. That stuff that he writes in his book and that pours out of his mouth, yes, that’s another matter.
Yeah, I think people confuse win probabilities with polling percentages.
If a pollster predicted that ten races each had a Democratic win probability of 70%, and the Democrats won all ten of those races, that prediction would be wrong—as wrong as if the Republicans won six of the races.