this post was submitted on 26 Aug 2024
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Political Discussion and Commentary

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[–] morphballganon 8 points 2 weeks ago (5 children)

National polls don't tell us much due to the electoral college.

Whether AL is +2 Trump or +20 Trump has no impact on who wins.

[–] laverabe 1 points 2 weeks ago (4 children)

That's a good point. Are there any models out there that "compensate" for that? I know Nate Silver's one has been popular but I don't know if that factors in the electoral weighing.

[–] krelvar 2 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)
[–] laverabe 1 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

ah yeah, I had forgot about that. He was dead wrong in 2016 ;) I think he had Clinton at like 80% chance of winning, but I believe whatever errors they made back then were mostly corrected since.

[–] krelvar 2 points 2 weeks ago

Silver isn't with 538 anymore, I think his model and the 538 model have the same basis though, probably diverging a bit since he left?

In any case, the point that an 80% chance of X is no guarantee of X got pounded home, don't you think? :)

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