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No, it doesn't. The spoiler effect is about how the introduction of new candidates can change the outcome of an election, such that a previous winner loses because of the proximity of another candidate. Here is an example of it:
But that never happens. The two main parties always ignore everybody except for what their establishment wants for the most part. The DNC didn't learn from it's lesson in 2016, it's not going to learn from it's lesson in 2024. And the RNC is obviously even worse at learning lessons.
You're not the one I am trying to convince here.
I do not care. I'm only here to disprove you wrong about your claims about the spoiler effect. You are wrong both on a mathematical level and a practical level.
Thanks for this, this was super helpful to see in graph form. Quality post. Saving for later.
I actually wrote a python program just to make this graph. I found myself arguing with spoiler effect deniers way too often. It is incredibly easy to show this effect happening now. And I can run it as many times as I like with random colors, candidate names, etc.
It is super neat.
Indeed the only thing the Democrat party learned on 2016 was that "Trump won so that is a winning strategy and I would do better if I were more like that".
Because NEWS FLASH, PEOPLE: Political Parties are not rational actors! They are FERAL. They CONSUME people, but the parties themselves are fundamentally not human. They do not have empathy, they do not have a conscience, and they BARELY even have object permanence!
People need to realize that as long as we're stuck in a First Past The Post model, what voting constitutes is NOT "supporting the lesser of two evils" but RATHER "punishing the greater of two evils".
The party that LOSES defines "what not to do".
Honestly for FUCKS sake the Republican party should have fucking DIED decades ago. The only reason Richard fucking Nixon won and got to deploy his cancerous Southern Strategy was because Wallace distracted the voters who SHOULD have been focused on KILLING THE GOP.
We were almost free of the fascist anti-civil-rights pro-slavery SCUM.
And you know what wouldn've happened? The Democrat party would have SPLIT. Because in First Past the Post there are always TWO viable parties. The split, as it always is, would have been along the pro-tradition/anti-authority line, and we would've had a centrist party and a progressive party instead of the centrist party and fucking dictator cult we have today. God fucking DAMMIT.
If it is at all helpful, you're not alone in your anger towards the system. You're 100% correct. This is shit we should have move on from 50 years ago.
... honestly it is astonishing to me how much of a relief it is to hear someone actually agree ._. i feel like i'm in hostile territory all the damn time lately surrounded by people who are wildly hallucinating what they wish were true instead of facing the historically proven realities of the world we're stuck in. thank you.
It is truly maddening, and OP isn't helping. So I'm quite happy to hear somebody who share the sentiments you've given. Take care, it's gonna be a long election.
And you and I have already talked about this. We're done talking about it. I don't believe in it, and that's my opinion. You are free to feel the way you want. So you have proven nothing to me.
And if you continue this conversation with me, I will block you. Again.
It's also some people's opinion that the moon landing was faked. Not all opinions are of equal merit. And yours in particular when it comes to the spoiler effect flies in the face of the evidence. That evidence being the evidence I literally just showed you.
The math shows it's true. You can bury your head in the sand if you like, but you can't make the rest of us join you. Accept it.
Go for it. If you can't handle honest critical thought, that's on you.
Thank you. Just did! :)
Your opinion is dumb! And that's my opinion.
And I am ok with that.