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So let’s recap
Biden BOMBED the debate
NYT printed a bunch of stories (like, more than they have and more frequently than on any other single topic for years including the insurrection) about how this was an objective disaster for Biden and there was no possible way he could win now
Polls came out, showing anywhere from 0 to 2 points of loss of support even after an absolutely historic fuckup
Polls investigating why that is, for some reason, are kind of hard to find, our media preferring to run weird slanted polls where they ask more or less “Why did Biden fuck up so bad and do you really want to continue to support him now?”. But the few of them that can be found investigating the more data driven issue report voters saying, more or less, that sure Biden is old but his opponent is an angry malicious liar who is an objective catastrophe for the country and that’s more important to me
So then after all that, the NYT runs a story today saying here’s what the Democrats don’t understand, the voters are influenced by style, not substance. If the Democrats want to stop being wrong about everything and losing they need to understand that.
Do I have my summary correct?
The polls I see put it at about 50-50 ( from Fivethirtyeight.com ).
Your summary is wrong. They put out an opinion piece arguing that the DNC underestimates the threat from the GOP. I agree, they're running a pathetically weak campaign against someone who will probably end democracy and might have them all killed.
538 puts a heavy weight on time. Their model will say 50/50 until after both conventions.
Yeah, it's basically a dead heat in national polls; it is pointless given the incredible number of issues that make it more complex to look at than just "which number in the national polling is higher" to get any level of heated about swings up or down by single percentage points in the national poll, much less "should Biden drop out?" or similar questions.
None of this is to say there is no problem. 538's overall bottom line estimate which takes into account factors way more complex than I have dug into, arrives at an ultimate output of Biden having about a 25% chance of winning the election. That's probably the closest thing we have to an overall "what's the likely election outcome" polling barometer. I'm just sort of talking about poking holes in the lazy and partisan way it tends to be analyzed when the media talks about polling.
Edit: Wait WHAT THE SHIT
I went looking for the summary model to send that said 25%, and found this - Nate Silver gives Biden overall a 52% chance to win. WHEN THE FUCK DID THIS HAPPEN
Was I just looking at the 2020 model before and not realizing it, or something? Have I become so dyslexic that I read 52 as 25 even when there was a whole chart and everything?
My world is upended and my morning is somewhat happier now. @Ensign_[email protected] hey dude I love polls again
The national poll isn't going to decide this election though. It really is about a 100,000 people in 3 states.
Nate Silver is not at 538 any more. I believe his model has gives Biden 35% or so, but it's paywalled so I'm not entirely sure
Got it. That makes it make sense. This is Nate Silver’s, and I am almost sure that it predicts 25%. I think it was un paywalled at one point and that’s when I saw it.
Thanks fur the link