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Unfortunately, I think you are gravely underestimating his chances.
I ain't. He got elected once, sure. But that's when people didn't really know what he was capable of.
But people wised up. How do I know?
Because he lost while being a sitting president.
He won't be elected. I'll be voting and telling everyone I know to go out and vote.
He lost during a crazy pandemic that caused massive uncertainty, at a time when most of the economy was 'shut down'. And even then, there were enough electoral votes to give him the victory that were less than a 1% margin of going to Trump. So he was shockingly close to winning, given the circumstances. Voting was also easier than ever in 2020, and many of those measures to make voting easier have been undone. So in 2020, you probably didn't need to go to a job, and even if you did, you could easily mail your vote in. In 2024, a likely Biden voter is more likely to have their job tie them up and are also less likely to reasonably be able to mail in a vote.
More than half of Americans think the economy is in bad shape (whether or not they are accurate is beside the point). That's generally a bad sign for an incumbent. Trump's tossing out populist fodder as promises he would certainly break, but there's a large population willing to bet on that longshot.
He won't win the election. If he does, come back here and mock me.
I don’t think this guy is interested or even cares about the opportunity to mock you, but he raises good substantive points. I think that Trump losing re-election as a sitting President is pretty irrelevant these days. Also, when did a sitting President lose and then successfully clinch the GOP nomination as efficiently and effectively as Trump did? A lot has changed in 4 years. People can hardly remember last Tuesday let alone all the atrocious shit that Trump has said or done in the last 8 years.
Oh I remember everything the GOP has done, even during the Obama era. They shut down the government twice out of spite at that time. I will never forget.
Him losing as a sitting president is quite relevant. He didn't "clinch the GOP nomination" afterwards. He was already at the top. And yet he lost. Why? Because the majority didn't want him, just like they didn't want him last time - only this time around people got up and voted against him. And people will get up and vote against him. Me included!
He clinched the GOP nomination for 2024 is what I meant. Also I’m glad you remember all that happened. My point is that many people do not.
Like I said, he was going to get the 2024 nomination. He was already at the top. Bunch of GOP cowards let it happen - they could have simply expel him from the GOP. But that would have meant losing big.