MyopicTopic

The day before the first round of the NHL Draft last week in Nashville, Islanders general manager Lou Lamoriello shared the realities and frustrations of trying to navigate what has been a nearly flat salary cap for the past half-decade. The recently confirmed upper limit of $83.5 million for the 2023-24 season will be only $2 million higher than what it was five years ago in 2019-20, making it difficult lately for managers throughout the NHL to annually alter their rosters all that much.

The blatant inference was some of those contracts agreed to before the pandemic wouldn’t have been done had everyone known what was on the horizon, and the Islanders are no different than just about every other team in that regard.

“We’re in this position because of what happened with assumptions, which is a real bad word, of where the cap would be,” Lamoriello said. “So some of the signings that we made three years ago — and I’m talking universally, everyone — we would not have done because in your planning you also know what the progression will be … because of where the revenues are going.”

The suggestion seemed to be that because the Islanders didn’t have a ton of salary-cap space heading into free agency, they might be forced to see some of the players they hoped to retain instead depart while having to settle for cheaper (aka lesser) options.

Well, no. The club signed Ilya Sorokin, Scott Mayfield, Pierre Engvall and Semyon Varlamov to more than a quarter-century’s worth of new contracts, making the assumption — that “real bad word” — that the cap will significantly rise over the next few years. To recap: Sorokin got an eight-year deal with an $8.25 million AAV; Varlamov, four years with a $2.75 million AAV; Mayfield, seven years with a $3.5 million AAV; and Engvall, seven years, with a $3 million AAV.

The salary cap is expected to rise by $4 million to $87.5 million in 2024-25 and could even balloon to $92 million by 2025-26. Lamoriello’s assumption does seem pretty safe.

Of course, all long-term contracts have risks. Sorokin came in second place in voting for the Vezina Trophy last season, and his salary beginning in 2024-25 will probably be below market value. But goalies are notoriously unpredictable. Varlamov, too, while a solid backup, is already 35 years old.

Engvall and Mayfield were both important cogs in the Islanders’ late-season surge to get into the playoffs, but the former has played only a handful of games on Long Island after he was acquired in March, and the latter is a mostly third-pair defenseman who plays a physical game that could take a toll on his body — and he’s already past 30.

All of that led to Lamoriello taking a fair amount of heat in the mediasphere for keeping the Islanders together at all costs. While no one was too critical of the Sorokin deal — after all, he’s still making much less than Sergei Bobrovsky ($10 million) and Andrei Vasilevskiy ($9.5 million) — a case can be made that the others are actually too long.

And, yeah, maybe they are. We don’t have a crystal ball here.

But let’s take a broader look.

In this age of instant analysis, in which there are a handful of models that assert to predict a player’s future and how his contract ages, it’s sometimes easy to overlook how every team’s circumstances are different. That’s not to say that kind of statistical analysis isn’t valuable and insightful; it’s just one of many things to consider. But there are others.

When it comes to the four players the Islanders signed, it’s important to remember how each of them fits into what Lamoriello and the organization are trying to achieve. That is, they still believe this is a group that can compete for a Stanley Cup.

And is that a truly wild assumption? It’s less than two years since some were picking the Islanders to win a championship. Yes, the roster is a bit older than it was then. But along with the emergence of Sorokin, the team added Bo Horvat and is seemingly looking for another scorer, perhaps even Alex DeBrincat. From Feb. 19 through the end of the 2022-23 regular season, the Islanders’ .652 points percentage was tied for 10th in the league — with the Eastern Conference champion Florida Panthers, who finished eighth to the Islanders’ seventh in the standings.

We already went over whether the Islanders and Lamoriello’s philosophy is logical in this age of dynamic offenses and average goalies capturing the Stanley Cup. There’s an argument that the Islanders are trying to win with a brand of hockey that is outdated and was much more successful 20-plus years ago when Martin Brodeur was backstopping the Devils to three championships under the now-Islanders general manager.

But it’s not like the Islanders were suddenly going to change course and try and become a team that can keep up offensively with the Colorados and Vegases of the world. That would take a few years, at least.

Sorokin, of course, is where their identity now begins. And a recent trend that Lamoriello surely agrees with, that an NHL team needs two goaltenders to succeed, is why Varlamov was retained, as there’s no one else in the organization that is ready for that kind of role. Varlamov surely could have found a landing spot somewhere else, and there’s a strong possibility that he could have gotten a three-year deal for at least a $3 million AAV. The evidence of that is most apparent in the Ottawa Senators giving Joonas Korpisalo a five-year, $20 million contract. Frederik Andersen, 33, got a two-year, $6.8 million extension. Even Mackenzie Blackwood, who may or may not be an NHL-level goalie, got a two-year, $4.7 million contract in San Jose. Jonathan Quick was signed to a cheap deal with the Rangers, but he’s been among the league’s worst goalies in the last five years, at least in terms of save percentage.

Sure, four years for a 35-year-old goalie isn’t ideal. But Varlamov isn’t going to be asked to carry the workload — which could keep him fresher for longer — and he’s fine taking a lesser role alongside Sorokin. He said so himself. He fits in with what the team is trying to accomplish in the crease both on and off the ice, and his cost is reasonable. It wasn’t that long ago that 41-year-old Craig Anderson was playing decent hockey at the end of his career in Buffalo, for example.

Most of the castigation, though, centered around the pair of seven-year extensions for Engvall and Mayfield. And while that’s a bit more understandable, there needs to be a bit more analysis than just a few numbered charts.

The prices for defensemen with Mayfield-like attributes weren’t cheap, either. Luke Schenn — three years older than Mayfield and not as well-rounded — signed a three-year, $8.25 million contract with Nashville. Radko Gudas, also three years older, went to Anaheim on a four-year, $12 million deal. So the difference between Mayfield’s AAV and those two players is almost negligible, and Mayfield should still have some good years in his immediate future.

More importantly, though, the Islanders know Mayfield is respected in the dressing room, they know that in big moments he has the ability to step up, and they know that he’s versatile enough that he can play up in the lineup when necessary.

And Engvall, too, already meshed well with Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri. While the forward lines will, of course, always be fluid, it’s a good bet that Engvall will start with those two on opening night after they drove the bus for the team down the stretch. One comparison, at least statistically to Engvall, is the Kings’ Trevor Moore — who signed a five-year, $21 million deal ($4.2 AAV) in December.

And if it’s not working out in four or five years? The buyout cap penalty would be only $1 million — and by then, the salary cap could very well be over $100 million.

Will all of it lead to team success next season? Maybe, maybe not. And, yes, some of these contracts could lead to headaches down the road. But had the Islanders and Lamoriello not done what they did Saturday, there would have been a higher chance for a decline next season. There just weren’t enough other options in this landscape.

When the Blues make their selection at No. 10 on Wednesday night in Nashville, general manager Doug Armstrong and his scouting staff will be looking to land a caliber of player previously unreachable by St. Louis in the last 15 years.

It will be the team’s highest pick since 2008. It will be Armstrong’s first time selecting in the top 10 of the draft, and in one of the deepest drafts in recent memory. The Blues have been successful while picking late in the first round, and have built much of their extended period of winning on hitting on players drafted in the 20s.

But this one is different.

The Blues are not hoping for their first-round pick to turn into a regular NHL player. They are hoping for their first-round pick to turn into a star.

Who might that be?

They Blues would be fortunate if Matvei Michkov (because of his Russian contract and lack of contact with teams) or Zach Benson (size concerns) fell to them at No. 10. In a deep draft for forwards, the Blues could have the top defenseman (David Reinbacher) reach them. If not, they could have their pick of the next group that includes Dmitri Simashev, Axel Sandin-Pellikka and Tom Willander.

Some of those scenarios are optimistic. Here are more realistic ones if the first nine picks go a little closer to plan.

Oliver Moore: Moore is perhaps the best skater in the draft, a center whose acceleration and edges help him generate offense. He had 75 points in 61 games last season with the United States National Team Development Program and will be attending the University of Minnesota next season, where he’ll play alongside current Blues prospect Jimmy Snuggerud.

Moore is originally from a suburb of Minneapolis, and could be the key to forming a speedy one-two punch down the middle with Robert Thomas.

Gabriel Perreault: Perreault is coming off a season in which he broke Auston Matthews’ scoring record with the USNTDP by putting up 132 points on 53 goals and 79 assists. It’s not an apples to apples comparison because Perreault was still a year older than Matthews was at the time of his record, but the point remains that Perreault led the USNTDP in points, outscoring other top draft prospects like Will Smith, Ryan Leonard and Moore.

Perreault is a winger, and would not fix the Blues’ depth issues at center and defenseman in their prospect pipeline, but would add another element of scoring punch with high hockey IQ. He will go to Boston College next season.

Ryan Leonard: Leonard might be more wishful thinking than anything for the Blues at 10, as many projections have him being gone by that point. He formed a potent line with the USNTDP with Smith and Perreault and projects as a center with an above-average shot to go with his hands. Many scouting publications have Leonard gone in the No. 6-8 range, but a name to keep an eye on just in case.

Dalibor Dvorsky: Like Leonard, Dvorsky could be gone by the time the Blues make their selection. Dvorsky is a big center at 6-1 and 201 pounds that is originally from Slovakia but has played the last five seasons in Sweden. Next year, he will make the jump to the SHL with IK Oskarshamn. He makes a living in the interior and pairs that with playmaking ability.

Dvorsky would fill a need at center, and would do so with some size.

Colby Barlow: Out of Owen Sound in the Ontario Hockey League, Barlow has a little bit of everything in his 6-1, 187-pound package. His shot garners a lot of attention, and for good reason after scoring 46 goals in 59 games during his draft year. Barlow’s curl-and-drag release can be deceptive, and he was the youngest captain in Owen Sound history when he wore the “C” last season.

Barlow would be the fifth straight winger the Blues have picked in the first round.

Nate Danielson: Danielson is an exciting center with two-way potential who created offense off the rush for Brandon in the Western Hockey League. Like Barlow, Danielson is the captain of his junior team, and posted 78 points in 68 games.

Quentin Musty: Musty has the pedigree of a top prospect after he was selected first in the OHL draft in 2021, and he is one of the youngest players in this draft that doesn’t turn 18 until July 6. A left winger, Musty has the 6-2 size that could play in the NHL, and possesses a power forward skillset that helped him to 78 points in 53 games with Sudbury last season.

Put on your navy, royal and gold sunglasses for a second.

Allow yourself to escape reality and dig deep into your optimism reserves.

Now that you’ve sufficiently entered a state of blissful delirium, consider this: the last time the Blues missed the playoffs, they won the Stanley Cup the very next year. In 2018, they missed the playoffs by one point. In 2019, they lifted the franchise’s first Cup.

This time is a little bit different.

In finishing with 81 points last season, the Blues submitted their first losing season in 15 years and missed the playoffs by 14 points. Even the grandest optimists would have trouble pushing aside their delusion to think St. Louis is in position to contend for the Cup next season.

Count Blues general manager Doug Armstrong among those who understands the differences between the 2018 offseason and this one, which will ramp up as the draft approaches June 28.

“We were different-wise in our cap space,” Armstrong said. “We were different-wise in our maturity. We brought in a lot of new faces that year, a lot of new faces and really good players. We had a young player like Robert Thomas that wasn’t supposed to make our team go on a little bit of a run, too. We’re just not as mature as we were then. We’re not built the same way.

“In ’19, a lot of people had picked us to be in the Final, win the division, win the Cup. I don’t think anyone’s doing that next year, and it’s not our time. I think we’re going to be competitive. I think we can fool people.”

In 2018, Armstrong swung big to change his roster.

The Blues traded for Ryan O’Reilly from Buffalo. They brought back David Perron from his one-year stay in Vegas. They signed Tyler Bozak. They allowed Pat Maroon to come home.

This summer? Unless big money comes off the books via a trade (Armstrong already ruled out a buyout), the Blues’ big acquisition could come in the form of a third-line center.

Throughout the offseason, Armstrong has toed the line publicly in his statements about the Blues.

He’s expressed faith in the roster he built, but he also knows how hard it would be to dissemble it given the contracts on the books. He’s said he doesn’t like the long summer or the high draft pick, and he wants a return to the playoffs, but Armstrong also knows his team is “further away” than just adding one piece. He’s talked about the need for better defense, with hope that better performances from veteran blue liners (and the addition of assistant coach Mike Weber) helps solve the problem.

Asked in a recent meeting with reporters what attributes he would like to add, Armstrong wanted better defending but also wanted to build a team that could succeed in both of the NHL’s seasons.

“It’s also trying to find the balance between being a good regular season team and a good playoff team,” Armstrong said. “You see they’re different animals. I know one thing, we had zero chance to win the Stanley Cup this year because we didn’t make the playoffs. We’ve got to make sure we find a way to get in the tournament.”

Florida’s run to the Stanley Cup Final has given teams hope that simply making the playoffs can allow you to become a contender. But the Panthers were a Presidents’ Trophy team that went through injuries and goaltending issues before becoming healthy and squeaking into the playoffs.

The Blues are not in that position.

In 10 days, the Blues franchise will change — either in the short-term or the long-term.

On the first day of the draft in Nashville on June 28, Armstrong could be the most popular man in hockey outside of Connor Bedard. He’s armed with pick Nos. 10, 25 and 29 and previously has shown a penchant for big trades. If the Blues can turn those picks into a young, controllable asset, Armstrong has expressed a desire to do so. If not, the Blues will have to settle for their highest draft pick since 2008, and their most first-round picks since 2007.

As for next year, Armstrong simply wants the Blues to get back to their identity, “which is being a good team, being good teammates and playing a strong, structured game.”

The intrigue keeps building in this NHL offseason. The action off the ice has been almost as compelling as what we saw on the ice.

One franchise was sold and another fell into limbo. Multiple regime changes changed team priorities. Rebuilding squads didn’t wait for the postseason to end before making blockbuster trades. The coaching carousel spun wildly.

Blues general manager Doug Armstrong has had much to monitor ahead of the NHL draft.

Tuesday brought news of the long-awaited Ottawa Senators sale, with Montreal Canadiens minority owner Michael Andlauer winning the bidding. This is great for that city, since Andlauer brings a hockey background (from also owning the OHL’s Hamilton Bulldogs), and he has recruited Ottawa businessmen into his group.

Holdover general manager Pierre Dorion is running the store for now, and he has plenty on his plate, such as shopping goal-scoring winger Alex DeBrincat.

DeBrincat, a restricted free agent, wants to be traded to a favorable location where he can get a new deal for, say, $9 million per year. His leverage makes him a tough fit for the Blues, but that didn’t stop league insider Elliotte Friedman from saying this on his “32 Thoughts” podcast:

“I had one guy say to me, ‘That’s a Doug Armstrong player. That’s a guy that Doug Armstrong would want. So, those are some of the teams that people are kind of focusing on. Obviously, I think there’s a ton of interest.”

Armstrong must also maintain surveillance on the Arizona Coyotes, a team facing an uncertain future after its latest arena bid failed. Coyotes general manager Bill Armstrong ran the Blues’ scouting operation in his previous job. He wants more prospects and draft picks, and the Blues can offer both.

Our Town’s Clayton Keller could want out, given the sorry state of things, and top prospect Logan Cooley declined to sign for next season due to the franchise uncertainty. Either forward could fit the Blues’ quest for a quick turnaround.

The Columbus Blue Jackets have been the pre-draft aggressor with former Blues president John Davidson and former Blues draft czar Jarmo Kekalainen driving the market.

Kekalainen traded the No. 22 overall pick in this draft and a conditional second-rounder to the Philadelphia Flyers in a three-way trade to land defenseman Ivan Provorov. He sent a third-round pick to New Jersey for defenseman Damon Severson, who got an eight-year, $50 million contract in the sign-and-trade maneuver.

Fortifying the Columbus blue line was a priority with Mike Babcock expected to coach the team. And as Justin Faulk, Torey Krug and Colton Parayko will attest, defensemen don’t need to be Norris Trophy candidates to get paid in this league.

The Flyers are embarking on an overdue rebuild with new team president Keith Jones and new GM Daniel Briere making big plays with input from taskmaster coach John Tortorella.

After offloading Provorov, Briere is listening on just about anybody, with goaltender Carter Hart; forwards Travis Konecny, Kevin Hayes and Scott Laughton; and defenseman Tony DeAngelo generating the most buzz.

After getting run out of Toronto, Kyle Dubas relocated to Pittsburgh to oversee the Penguins. Previous GM Ron Hextall clashed with both the team’s ownership, Fenway Sports Group, and coach Mike Sullivan.

Dubas is tasked with retooling around Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby. That could mean trading a top-six forward like Jake Guentzel, Bryan Rust, or Rickard Rakell and buying out Mikael Granlund.

Brad Treliving left Calgary and became general manager in Toronto. Signing center Auston Matthews to an extension is his top priority, but he must also decide if there will be enough long-term cap space for forward Michael Nylander, too.

Former Blues forward Craig Conroy succeeded Treliving in Calgary and picked assistant coach Ryan Huska to replace sourpuss Darryl Sutter. Now, Conroy must make decisions on forwards Elias Lindholm, Mikael Backlund and Tyler Toffoli and defensemen Noah Hanifin, Nikita Zadorov and Chris Tanev.

All six will enter the season with expiring contracts. All six could become unrestricted free agents. All six could become trade chips if they won’t re-sign.

Barry Trotz returned to Nashville to replace forever GM David Poile and drive a major overhaul. The Predators were busy before the trade deadline, and Trotz could make additional moves, even putting goaltender Juuse Saros possibly in play. Unlike Doug Armstrong, Trotz is taking the long view of things.

The Jets are also hitting the reset button. Center Pierre-Luc Dubois won’t re-sign in Winnipeg as a restricted free agent this summer. He is a year removed from unrestricted free agency, and like DeBrincat, he wants a long-term deal from a team of his choosing.

Unlike fellow Jets trade chips Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck, Dubois would be at least a theoretical fit for the Blues.

Armstrong has said he doesn’t expect to be a big player in this market — given his salary cap constraints — but we have come to expect the unexpected from him.

And the NHL could offer lots of surprises this summer.

Usually one to be back in the training room or away from the dugout when the game ends, Jordan Montgomery was there for the late innings Friday night, poised near the railing as he was earlier on the mound.

Although, entering the second month of his quest for a win, his decision to be that close to the field for game’s end had nothing to do with his changing his view or changing up his luck.

“I was just out there in case we cleared,” Montgomery said.

That’s “cleared” as in cleared the dugout.

“Cleared” as in cleared to take the field to confront the Reds.

In the seventh inning, one inning after Montgomery’s scoreless start ended, Cincinnati starter Ben Lively tagged catcher Willson Contreras with a pitch, right near his pinky. Contreras took issue with the obviousness of the pitch, and it took manager Oliver Marmol two visits to Contreras at first base to make sure his catcher was OK. One was to check the finger and make sure Contreras did not have to leave the game. The second time was to check the jawing to make sure Contreras wasn’t told to leave the game.

The whole time, Montgomery returned to the dugout, and that put him there, close to the action, as the longest losing streak of his career came to an end.

The Cardinals took an early lead, added to it late, and fended off some rallies for a 7-4 victory Friday against the Reds at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals drew a full house: three Jordans, two Nolans. Montgomery provided a quality start, Jordan Walker hit a two-run homer and Jordan Hicks had a turbulent seventh that tightened the game. Nolan Arenado hit a two-run homer for the first lead, and Nolan Gorman provided welcome cushion after Hicks’ inning with a two-run homer in the bottom of the seventh.

Montgomery (3-7) pitched six scoreless innings to earn his first win since April 8 and quash a run of 10 consecutive starts without a win. He’d lost a career-high seven consecutive decisions, and the Cardinals had gone winless in the lefty’s past 10 starts. The Cardinals lost nine of them by one run or in a shutout, or both.

“He’s done a really nice job of giving us a shot for a W often,” Marmol said. “And we haven’t been able to reward him for that with some run support. The guy has given us a shot plenty of times. We just haven’t come through for him.”

Earlier this season, Montgomery was asked about run support and rapped his knuckles against the wood of his locker so as not to upset the luck.

Asked late Friday night if he was superstitious, Montgomery shrugged.

“I’m not superstitious,” he said. “But I’m a little-stitious.”

He admitted to be “pretty superstitious,” but he has been leafing through different superstitions in his pursuit of a win. He didn’t remain longer in the dugout — not unless he thought there be some brouhaha — and he didn’t take a different route to the ballpark. He didn’t switch up his workouts, didn’t alter warmup.

He kept the same cleats.

Same glove.

Even the same socks.

But a different changeup.

The off-speed pitch that spent most of the losing streak misbehaving has settled back into his hand over the past three starts, and it was at its best Friday. Montgomery threw the changeup 29 times, and 10 of them got a swing and a miss.

The Reds fouled off five.

They did not put a changeup in play.

“Montgomery has a plus changeup,” Contreras said. “And it’s not easy to read out of his hand. And when you have a heavy fastball and you can manage it effectively at 90 (mph), 91, 93, 95 — that makes it a lot more difficult.”

The catcher added: “It looks like say a slower fastball, but a way slower fastball. It looks like a fastball for sure, like a four-seam changeup. When it’s not good, it looks more like a faded changeup. You can see it out of the hand. It’s really good.”

When it wasn’t as effective, the bottom dropped out of it, and it could be ignored as a ball, allowing the hitter to hunt sinker. At other times, Montgomery’s changeup would float on him — up out and away from the zone or up and over the wall. The one changeup he misplaced this past week in Pittsburgh was socked for a home run.

Montgomery throws a four-seam, circle change, and during his between-start catch with teammates, he has been searching and shifting, shifting and searching for the right feel.

“Just something you’ve got to get extension,” Montgomery said. “When you get extension on it, and it comes out of your hand right and the shape is right, you move it up a little bit. It’s a lot easier for it to be right when you miss down and work up.”

Which is what he did Friday.

In the opening inning, Montgomery missed with the changeup down. The lefty pitched around a leadoff double and struck out rookie sensation Elly De La Cruz on three pitches to end the first inning. Contreras said it was then that Montgomery made a slight adjustment. He brought his changeup up and into the zone. By the third, he had it defying bats. De La Cruz struck out all three times he faced Montgomery. In the third, with a runner in scoring position, De La Cruz took Montgomery to a full count and then fell for the changeup.

That was the second of 11 consecutive batters retired by Montgomery to complete his six innings. The early innings bloated his pitch count, pushing it to 97 by the end of 18 outs.

The run of 11 consecutive outs included three groundouts to shortstop Paul DeJong, including one that was a dive to his left to steal a single. Dylan Carlson had two key catches for Montgomery in right field, and one of them in the first inning kept Cincinnati from a sacrifice fly. The inning after Montgomery turned the ball over the bullpen ended with Contreras throwing a runner out at second as the Reds tried a two-out double steal. For the Cardinals’ defense “there were little moments everywhere,” Marmol said. Montgomery fed that with seven groundouts and a sinker that played even better because Cincinnati had to respect the changeup.

There would be no reason to clear the dugout in the late innings, no fracas sparked by Lively plunking Contreras. But the possibility put Montgomery in a new spot as the game came to an end and a win went by his name.

That was the biggest change of them all.

“Hopefully this is a start,” Contreras said. “Where he keeps pitching, we keep scoring.”

Curious, since I know I can block communities of instances. Is instance-wide blocking only available to admins of instances?

Hey all, figured I'd submit a logo for the community and try to beef this place up to look all pretty.