this post was submitted on 11 Sep 2023
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submitted 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) by erlend_sh to c/technology
 

https://archive.ph/hMZPi

Remember when tech workers dreamed of working for a big company for a few years, before striking out on their own to start their own company that would knock that tech giant over?

Then that dream shrank to: work for a giant for a few years, quit, do a fake startup, get acqui-hired by your old employer, as a complicated way of getting a bonus and a promotion.

Then the dream shrank further: work for a tech giant for your whole life, get free kombucha and massages on Wednesdays.

And now, the dream is over. All that’s left is: work for a tech giant until they fire your ass, like those 12,000 Googlers who got fired six months after a stock buyback that would have paid their salaries for the next 27 years.

We deserve better than this. We can get it.

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[–] BeautifulMind 60 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Remember when tech workers dreamed of [...]

Yes, I remember. I had some of those dreams.

I was never a candidate for starting my own tech company, I was a self-taught dev living with undiagnosed autism and if anything, the plan was to work for a tech giant my whole life or until I could cash in some options and retire with some security.

I worked for Microsoft from the mid-90s to 2014 and it was all going basically to plan until one fine day 18,000 of us were called to a meeting to be told we were being laid off. I understand why they did this (there were groups in the company that did more or less the same things but with different tooling and I'd been working to align those things, because obvs we could use resources better and strangely management didn't want that) but it hurt a lot to learn that a big part of the mass-layoff logic was not so much about efficiency or doing better work, it was about juicing the stock by making the market happy about cutting labor costs, and it was about depressing the kinds of wages folks like me could bargain for. (There's nothing quite like a sudden dump of ~18k new job-seekers in a regional market to press those salary offers down by 20%)

It's 9 years on and I'm working at a smaller shop, writing open-source software and I still don't make what I was making then (and I've been watching as Amazon and Microsoft and Google keep on running this mass-layoff play every other year). I could probably make better money if I jumped around from job to job, but frankly where I'm at is a good fit, they're accommodating of my neurodivergence, and there isn't the specter of immanent buyouts or mass layoffs to juice the stock.

Looking down-thread, I see some dispute about whether folks in my position are petit bourgeois or the proletariat, and really I don't care what label you lot think is the right one- at this point I'm a middle-aged professional, I work for a living, even though in my 20s I was pretty hopeful I was tracking to be able to retire by the time I'd reach my current age. (yeah, short of winning the lottery that's not happening and when I think too hard about that it's not bitterness I feel, but chagrin)

Looking back, I recall being abruptly 'let go' from a contract when I was passing out union leaflets while working as a contractor at Microsoft, and frankly I hope they press to unionize again and the new rules about union-busting are in effect when they do it.

[–] nyar 17 points 1 year ago (1 children)

No matter how much you make, if you don't actually own capital, and you must work for a living to survive, you're part of the proletariat. It's just a matter of everyone else who thinks they're part of the petit bourgeois finally waking up to that fact.

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[–] [email protected] 56 points 1 year ago (1 children)

imagine getting first replaced by some kid out of a garage, then by indian code farms and now by ai developed by the grown up kids from said garage and trained by indian code farms.

[–] [email protected] 46 points 1 year ago (9 children)

So tired of this rhetoric. AI isn't replacing any software engineering jobs, nor could it. It's a joke, quite frankly.

[–] [email protected] 36 points 1 year ago (2 children)

They set up a ChatGPT based bot at my work just to help our support agents find information faster. It provides straight up factually false information 80% of the time. A solid 30% of the time, it says the opposite of the truth. It’s completely worthless at all times.

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[–] TeenieBopper 15 points 1 year ago (2 children)

I was listening to a podcast about AI. I think it was one of Ezra Kleins. And he was telling a story that he heard, bout those weird virtual reality games from the 90s or early Aughts. And people shat on those games because they were awful and clunky and not very good so that shitting was well deserved. But one guy was like "yeah, that's all true. But this is the worst it's going to be. The next iteration isn't going to be worse than this."

And that's where AI is now. Like, it's powerful and already a threat to certain jobs. GPT 3/4 may be useless to software engineering jobs now (I'd argue that it's not - I work in a related field and I use it about daily) but what about GPT 5? 6? 10?

Im not as doom and gloom on AI as I was six months ago, but I think it's a bit silly to think that AI isn't going to cause massive upheaval across all industries in the medium to long term.

But also, for the record, I'm less worried about AI than I am about AI in the hands of Capitalism.

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[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 year ago (2 children)

It was impossible for a computer to be smart enough to beat grandmasters at chess, until it wasn't. It was impossible to beat Go Masters at Go, until it wasn't.

No software engineering jobs are getting replaced this year or next year. But considering the rapid pace of AI development, and considering how much code development is just straight up redundant... looking at 20 years from now, it's not so bright.

It would be way better to start putting AI legislation in place this year. That or it's time to start transitioning to UBI.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (3 children)

I am an actual (senior) software engineer, with a background in ML to boot.

I would start to worry if we were anywhere close to even dreaming of how AGI might actually work, but we're not. It's purely in the realm of science fiction. Until you meet the bar of AGI, there's absolutely no risk of software engineering jobs being replaced.

Go or Chess are games with a fixed and simple ruleset and are very suited to what computers are really good at. Software engineering is the art of making the ambiguous and ill-defined into something entirely unambiguous and precisely defined, and that is something we are so far from achieving in computers it's not even funny. ML is ultimately just applied statistics. It's not magic, and it's far from anything we would consider "intelligence".

I do think we need legislation targeting ML, but not because of "omg our jobs". Rather we need legislation to combat huge tech companies vacuuming any and all data on the general public and using that data to manipulate and control the public.

Also, LOL at "how much code development is straight up redundant". If you think development amounts to just writing a bunch of boilerplate as though we were some kind of assembly line putting together the same thing over and over again, you're sorely mistaken.

[–] Not_mikey 9 points 1 year ago

I think you overestimate what the average software developer is doing.

Do I think in 10 years ai will be patching the Linux kernel or optimizing aws scaling functions, no. Do I think it will be creating functional crud apps with Django or Ruby on rails, yes, and I think that's what a large amount of software developers are doing. Even if it's not a majority a lot of the more precarious developers without a cs degree will probably lose their job. Not every developer is a senior engineer working on ML.

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[–] [email protected] 46 points 1 year ago (1 children)

As someone who started his tech career in the mid '90s, this kind of hurts to see put into words so well.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 year ago

I started my tech career in 2003 and back then I thought I'd work for a startup, get some options, go public, and retire at 35.

That did not happen, and while I'm making more than most I don't have fancy vacations or a brand new Tesla.

[–] [email protected] 30 points 1 year ago (1 children)
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[–] [email protected] 25 points 1 year ago

Maybe now we'll finally unionize

[–] [email protected] 20 points 1 year ago (2 children)

I think the number of places for an IT engineer to work is going to reduce to just SaaS companies and cloud providers. The guys working at the fortune 500s will be clicking radio buttons in an app and not know how any of it really works.

[–] cybersandwich 32 points 1 year ago

As someone who deals with this and helps make decisions for a large enterprise, SaaS and cloud service providers already have a really bad rep. SaaS especially. Not only is it all fragmented, as soon as you ever so slightly deviate from out of the box, it's fucked. You may have well just custom developed it.

Not to mention the costs and lock-in. I think you'll see a swing back towards custom software (using open standards and owned data centers and equipment soon. It's already happening. The value proposition of the cloud is dwindling (and honestly never existed for 70% of use cases).

There are plenty of tools now that let you do a hybrid where you can use the cloud as minimally as possible but do everything else "in house".

Id love to see a shift from "new, novel, innovation > *" to a, if we just properly supported and maintained the stuff we have it would be much cheaper and more effective.

[–] [email protected] 23 points 1 year ago (2 children)

eh, I think on prem will have a resurgence when cloud goes the way of streaming, and becomes so fragmented and expensive it becomes cheaper and safer to build your own.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Cloud is just like social media. It’s providing a “too good to be true” model to attract everyone it can to make them dependent on it before the big bait and switch of price hikes.

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[–] [email protected] 11 points 1 year ago

I hope youre right. I see companies going from having mature change control processes to outsourcing to a saas or cloud provider who operates like the wild west behind the curtains.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Any way to read the article without the paywall?

[–] DarthBueller 17 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Yes. But it would be wrong for you to use a site like archive.is to circumvent a paywall.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Absolutely. I certainly wouldn't click this link

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Thank you both for warning me against doing something like that.

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[–] mesamunefire 11 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I wish I could read the entire article without an account.

Eric Flint is one of my favorite authors.

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