Can or can't, they'll have to...
this post was submitted on 17 Feb 2025
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All along...if they don't get involved when Ukraine is invaded then they will have to get involved when Poland is.
I think that a Poland attack is pretty far away. Poland has a pretty big armed service.
Next is more likely to be the Baltics if Putin is feeling brave, or back south to Georgia if Putin is nervous about the Scandinavian/Baltic alliance.
Put has also had his eye on Moldova for quite some time.
But it's on the other side of Ukraine and even if he would take over completely there, I'm pretty sure Ukraine would go into guerilla mode not exactly helping an invasion of Moldova. But it's russia after all, so better not reply on logic alone🙈
Armenia might also be an option if he wants to be best buds with Azerbaijan again.
I'm sure he'd love to get his hands on Armenia, but that's not a big threat to Europe.
Neither is Georgia nor Moldova.
What are you talking about? Moldova is between Ukraine and Romania.
Oh, I misinterpreted your comment then.
It's still possible to argue that it's "not a big deal", though. Russia has had a constant military presence in the breakaway region of Transnistria for decades, so technically not much would change.
I didn't say it was not a big deal. I said him taking over Armenia is not a big threat to Europe. A further incursion into Europe via Moldova is a big threat. Especially to Romania. Transnistria is between Moldova and Ukraine. That has been a threat since Russia invaded Ukraine. Invading Moldova and moving that border to Romania would make things an even bigger threat. I'm not sure why I need to explain this in such detail.
In which sense would it be a bigger threat than before?
Unlike Kaliningrad Moldova is landlocked so if Russia manages to take it, the country is not suitable as a staging point for serious military operations, because material can only reach it via air Though given their current international standing I am not sure if reinforcement that way even is a possibility at the moment or in the near future as Romania would likely close their airspace to Russia and Ukraine ... is Ukraine.
If you don't understand what being able to have a military on the border of Romania, where it is not now, is a bigger threat to Europe than the way things are now, I really do not know how to explain it to you. Maybe play a game of Risk sometime? Even if it doesn't explain things to you, it's a fun board game.
Sure it's a bigger threat but by how much? 1%? 2%?
As it currently stands, Transnistria's border is a measly 150 km away from Romania.
If you play your next game of Risk, I recommend you have a look at the size of the countries modelled in the game and compare them to real world values.
🙄
Oh no, what if it's actually a rom-com: will they, won't they.