Russia is losing around 320 tank and artillery cannon barrels a month and producing only 20. The Russian engineering industry lacks the skills to build rotary forges; in fact, the world market is dominated by a single Austrian company, GFM. Russia is unlikely to acquire more forges and increase its production rate.

Russia was never a very powerful manufacturer, compared to the Western competition, or compared to China today.

To resupply its forces, Russia has been stripping tank and artillery barrels from the vast stockpiles it inherited from the Soviet Union. But these stockpiles have withered since the start of the war.

For a bit of perspective:
In WW2 Germany took (Austria mostly voluntary), France, Netherlands, Belgium, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Denmark, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia AND Ukraine.

Now after almost 3 years, Russia not only hasn't managed to take Ukraine, but has lost territory to them too. For months now Russia has still not been able to take it back!

Even sacrificing more than 1000 men per day the past 6 months, Russia is still doing poorly, and is running out of equipment.

In WW2 the Soviet Union didn't really do that well either. They only managed because they got a lot of equipment from USA, and because they also in that war sacrificed their soldiers as cannon fodder.

Ukraine on the other hand has done very well against Russia, managing to hold back a Nation with 4 times their population and 6-8 times their economy!!
Of course Ukraine is getting help now, but they managed to fight back in the start of the war, even before any help had arrived.

Slava Ukraini

[–] niktemadur 5 points 23 hours ago (1 children)

putin and stalin - and every alcoholic below them on the hierarchy - equally incompetent, just as inhumane and idiotic in their views on life and the world, having brutalized and/or persecuted the intelligent people out of their right wing society, then scratching their heads as to why their infernal machinery crumbles.

This is why russia remains firmly stuck in the 19th goddamned century.

[–] Buffalox 4 points 22 hours ago

Yes, if Putin had embraced democratic values, and cooperated with the west. Russia could have had more than 30 years of steady progress, and be the biggest economy in Europe.
But apparently that wasn't good enough for Putin. Instead he wanted to recreate the Soviet Union?!
Talk about a wasted opportunity!

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Ukraine is losing ground every day, and that worries me a lot. I do not know what they can achieve before Trump reaches office and inevitably pulls all support from Ukraine. I kinda doubt the EU will be ready to step in in equal measure right away (if ever).

My hope is that Ukraine does massive damage to the positions in Russia now that they have been given the go-ahead to strike in Russian territory.

[–] Buffalox 18 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Ukraine is losing ground every day,

Yes it's a so called war of attrition, Ukraine is exchanging land instead of personnel and material losses.
The strategy is to exhaust Russia, and it's actually working.
I too worry though, and I'm saddened the Ukrainians have to suffer through this through absolutely no fault of their own. But at least it seems like Ukraine is winning, and Russia is losing on more fronts like Syria and Georgia now, because the house of cards is collapsing.
The fact that Russia hasn't been able to take back the occupied areas of Kursk yet, is VERY telling.

Ukraine has done without US aid for 8 months already, when the house blocked all aid from USA. And Russia is in worse condition now, than they were back then.
What would be really cool, would be if Belarus had a system change to a more Pro European government.
Russia is probably not going to be able to help Lukashenko again if they rebel now.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

Ukraine has done without US aid for 8 months already, when the house blocked all aid from USA.

Huh? The US has sent military aid nearly every month since at least April of 2024. The House did manage to interrupt the flow while they had a slapfight around military funding for Israel but that was resolved long ago. Heck, another 5.5 Billion was announced just 60 days ago!

Could, and should, the US be doing more? Absolutely! However to say that we haven't done anything for 8 months is completely absurd.

[–] Buffalox 6 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

Huh? The US has sent military aid nearly every month since at least April of 2024.

Yes that's when it was finally voted through, Ukraine got nothing from USA half of 2023 and start of 2024. For about 8 months total.
I think EU is also in a better position to help more now. Many EU countries have increased production and aid in the meantime.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

Ukraine got nothing from USA half of 2023 and start of 2024.

Again...huh?

The US did a "final drawdown" in December of 2023 sending military aid worth about 250 Million dollars.

There was 100 Million the month before, in November of 2023.

As near as I can tell the longest run was January of 2024 into April of 2024 which is only 4 months. Still too long but that's way different than 8 months.

I think you are misremembering the political theater around approving more for 2024 and interpreting it to mean we didn't send anything in the back half of 2023.

[–] Buffalox 2 points 23 hours ago

I think you are misremembering the political theater

Maybe I do, but to be honest, the aid November and December is peanuts compared to the 60 billion package. Of course it's not nothing, but it's on a level comparable to a tiny country like Denmark, with only a 50th the population of USA.

So OK maybe not nothing, but very little.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

Of course Ukraine is getting help now, but they managed to fight back in the start of the war, even before any help had arrived.

I don't mean to downplay Ukraine's fighting spirit but they had a shit ton of help even before the war started! Trump, fuck that guy, had loaded them up with Small Arms and Javelin Missiles (stuff that Obama had refused to send) before the war kicked off. The US, the UK, and Canada, had also spent more than two years re-training the Ukrainian Armed Forces so that it wouldn't be a repeat of 2014.

Then between 2014 and 2019 the United States alone spent nearly 2 Billion dollars assisting Ukraine. Even before the war started the U.S. was 90% of Ukraine's foreign military assistance!

Ukraine has fought and bled to keep their country and there's no question that many brave Patriots over there have given everything they could, all glory to them. However this idea that Ukraine was going it alone the first while isn't true at all and its very disrespectful to its Allies and Partners to make that claim.

[–] Buffalox 4 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Trump, fuck that guy, had loaded them up with Small Arms and Javelin Missiles (stuff that Obama had refused to send) before the war kicked off.

I had to check this, and it seems you are right?

The US, the UK, and Canada, had also spent more than two years re-training the Ukrainian Armed Forces

Yes I know Ukraine had received some NATO training, and it was allegedly a major reason they did so well against Russia too.

I apologize for being imprecise, what I meant was that Ukraine hadn't received WAR assistance yet, all you write was from when we still thought we could reason with Putin, and make a sensible agreement.
When war was a reality, a lot of countries stepped up help a lot, but it took a while to arrive, and basically we've been pretty constantly behind on supplies, except when USA stepped in again, it helped a lot.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

I had to check this, and it seems you are right?

I don't really blame anyone for not knowing. It wasn't discussed much in mainstream media.

When war was a reality, a lot of countries stepped up help a lot, but it took a while to arrive...

Sadly true. Like many Americans if I'd had my way our response would have been faster and more direct. We have an outsized military for a reason and If I'd been the American President I'd have used that Big Stick to beat every Russian in your country to death. In two weeks Putin would have ceased trying and this would have been over and done with.

You stop a bully by punching them in the face so hard they forget their name and that's exactly what America should have done. You just needed 14 days of our Air Power and sadly we weren't willing to lend it to you.

[–] Buffalox 1 points 23 hours ago

You stop a bully by punching them in the face so hard they forget their name

Exactly, and honestly Biden hasn't managed this situation as well as he could IMO. For instance the nonsense of Ukraine not being allowed to strike into Russia never made any sense IMO.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Now after almost 3 years, Russia not only hasn't managed to take Ukraine, but has lost territory to them too. For months now Russia has still not been able to take it back!

That was a battle cry for a tankie to show up and produce a different statistic. FYI, it's usually a time capped chart that limits data in Russia's favor.

War is a dynamic phenomenon, after all. (You can usually take a specific block of time from any point and produce a favorable result by limiting which variables are used. This is why internet charts and graphs must always be verified, actually.)

[–] Buffalox 11 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

War is a dynamic phenomenon, after all.

Doesn't change the fact that this 3 week operation, is now a 1000+ day embarrassment for Russia. Where instead of taking Ukraine in 3 weeks, they've only managed 20% in almost 3 years, and at extreme cost of both human lives and war material. Plus they've committed a long string of war crimes.

I don't see how any tankie can turn this to look good for Russia, except flat out lying about it.

[–] NOT_RICK 11 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Even worse, their propaganda outlets were reporting three days at the onset

[–] Buffalox 3 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

AFAIK the estimate given to Putin was 3 weeks, 3 days was media hype, I'm not going to repeat that nonsense.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 day ago

https://archive.is/FKLdP