this post was submitted on 22 Nov 2024
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"Because in 2024, Ukraine is no longer facing Russia. Soldiers from North Korea are standing in front of Ukraine. Let's be honest. Already in Ukraine, the Iranian 'Shahedis' are killing civilians absolutely openly, without any shame," said Zaluzhny, adding that North Korean and Chinese weapons are flying into Ukraine. Zaluzhny urged Ukraine's allies to draw the right conclusions. "It is still possible to stop it here, on the territory of Ukraine. But for some reason our partners do not want to understand this. It is obvious that Ukraine already has too many enemies. Ukraine will survive with technology, but it is not clear whether it can win this battle alone," he said.

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[–] [email protected] 30 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

My chain of reasoning:

  • if Ukraine loses (or has to enter a very unfavourable agreement), it's not due to Ukraine wanting to lose, but no longer having the means to oppose (after all, Russia is a bigger country and also inherited nearly all the weapons of the USSR, and that was a lot)
  • thus, if Ukraine loses, inability or unwillingness of allies to support them is involved
  • if subsequently, a victorious Russia recovers economically, Russia may undertake further conquests
  • the next conquest could be westward of Ukraine, and a member of NATO --> path A to a really bad war
  • however, Russia might be too exhausted to undertake another conquest soon, or might collapse economically, even into revolutionary conditions --> path to uncertain times
  • however, there's another conflict waiting to happen: China is systematically training its military for attacking Taiwan, and systematically threatening Taiwan with military maneuvers and political statemements
  • it should be noted that China has also had border conflicts with India and Vietnam, and territorial disputes with many more countries, though no claims against their sovereignity
  • if Ukraine loses, this implies that Western countries will abandon an ally if pressed hard enough
  • subsequently China will consider whether it can press Taiwan hard enough, and I think it will conclude "yes" due to proximity --> path B to a really bad war
  • this development might come to a stop though, if Taiwan should surprisingly announce on some year that it has nuclear weapons and conduct a test

Conclusion: I have doubts, but yes, there is a potential for a chain reaction if it's demonstrated that international law does not have enough backers (does not apply if you are big enough).

[–] [email protected] 112 points 4 days ago (148 children)

Remember Trump is going to stop it before he is president! He is going to call Putin and tell him he better knock it off.

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[–] [email protected] 27 points 3 days ago (1 children)

World War happens when at least two great powers are on either side, according to League of Nations

[–] [email protected] 17 points 3 days ago (10 children)

It seems like it hasn't "bloomed" into something resembling the scale of the world wars yet. Ukraine is massive though, has room to contain a lot of warfare, but as of now it's still mostly contained.

I'm sure Putin would rather escalate than go back, though.

If this war leaves Ukraine, I'm gonna consider my days numbered. If it leaves Ukraine we'll probably have less than a decade left, and those years won't be good years.

Putin is so fucked in the head for wanting to conquer so bad that he's willing to do this, Russian people are equally fucked in the head for supporting it.

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[–] dohpaz42 73 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (5 children)

I feel like the Ukraine has one enemy. It’s just that the enemy has their hands in so many other country’s pots that those countries are either happy to help them, or obliged. But either way, I agree that Ukraine is unfortunately screwed.

[–] TropicalDingdong 77 points 4 days ago (12 children)

Europe needs to stand the fuck up and decide if they are actually allies or not. Stop Russia now or they won't stop till they get to France.

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[–] Sam_Bass 42 points 4 days ago (5 children)

Shame it couldn't've started with a better US government

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[–] EnderMB 3 points 2 days ago

I think that ultimately it's a war of attrition on both sides.

The west believes that the war is for as long as Putin is alive/coherent. While it's likely some other KGB cunt will take over and do the same shit, it's also possible that someone steps in and reverses course, pulling Russia out of potential economic collapse.

Russia believes that their might will topple Ukraine because the west will only back to a certain point, and because Ukraine will likely give up control of specific areas before seeing unsustainable bloodshed. Putin will claim victory and book his place alongside the Russian elite.

Those that are suffering are the Ukrainians, watching their country get torn apart.

IMO there's potentially a third side, and that could occur thanks to Trump. If Trump alienates the rest of the west AND China, we could potentially see China align itself with Europe and Ukraine, resulting in total isolation for Russia. This is just conjecture, but if the Russian economy is close to collapse, China may view it as beneficial to align with European markets, rather than prop up a failing market.

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