How do you think the unthinkable?
With an itheberg.
- Mike Tyson (probably)
this post was submitted on 26 Sep 2024
7 points (100.0% liked)
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Go ahead, draft me. Thanks to the lack of availability of family doctors I have a number of chronic health issues! At best you pile 300 other guys like me up to block a road.
It's important to remember that while this is escalation it isn't necessarily the prelude to a war - mobilization is often used to avert combat and entice parties back to the negotiating table.
Because the next war will likely be WW3.
But I'm not confident this is just to avert something larger, as it would seem we passed that point a while back.
I'm not certain, since war is never a logical escalation it's hard to predict when it will happen.
Putin may drag his countrymen into a war simply out of political self preservation but Russia cannot win against Nato. Russia can bomb the shit out of western countries and launch nukes but in a purely math sense it's like Germany in WW2 it would be doomed to failure.
I hope we don't get WW3 anytime soon and cooler heads prevail - I hope Putin is just bluffing and remains sane... but we'll see.
China absolutely has far too much to lose, I think war with China (even with Xi being a fucking hot head) is highly unlikely.
I honestly never thought of Xi as a hothead. This could be my bias or lack of awareness. I'd say he has a fragile ego, sure. Do you have any examples to show why you believe that?
I'm not that surprised. Supplying the Ukraine War has shown that most NATO countries do not have the ability to contribute with any meaningful industrial capacity. Fixing this would require a lot of supply chain building.
If Article 5 is invoked, Russia ceases to exist overnight.
The evening of the first day Russia fucks up, the US demonstrates why Americans don't have healthcare. It swoops in with a couple dozen stealth fighters, eliminates air-defence, decapitates the entire chain of command, then levels every military and military-adjacent structure from west to east and east to west and south to north at the same time. I sincerely doubt a single American life would be lost.
By morning, there's nothing of consequence left, and regular NATO fighters have control of the skies, taking out leftover smaller targets and industrial infrastructure... and that's it, game over.
It only takes one ICBM reaching it's target to fuck up a lot of people in Europe or America.