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Japanese angst as India set to become 4th largest economy (www.dw.com)

submitted 6 months ago by MicroWave to c/world

8 comments fedilink hide all child comments

Once an economic powerhouse that was the envy of much of the world, there is deep concern in Tokyo that the economies of China and Germany have already surpassed Japan's — and that India's will do so next year.

The announcement that in 2025 India will overtake Japan in nominal gross domestic product in dollar terms has shocked Tokyo, which had until 2010 been the undisputed second-largest economy in the world but is now on the brink of slipping to fifth place.

In estimates released in late April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicated that India's nominal GDP will reach $4.34 trillion (€4.03 trillion) in 2025, surpassing Japan's $4.31 trillion. The timing of India's surge into fourth place in the world comes one year earlier than the IMF's last estimate, due in large part to the weakness of the Japanese yen.

Japan's decline in the global economic standings follows the government's confirmation that the nation slipped behind Germany in 2023. The shock at India likely surpassing Japan next year is comparable to 2010, when a buoyant China replaced Japan as the world's second-largest economy.

"For Japan, this is a very big concern — but few people are talking about it openly because it is embarrassing and very difficult to solve," said Martin Schulz, chief policy economist for Fujitsu's Global Market Intelligence Unit.

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[–] mipadaitu 41 points 6 months ago (2 children)

Immigration, and change the work culture to reduce the amount of time at your job.

Japan needs people, and they're not having babies.

They need time to socialize, they need time to relax, they need time to just exist outside of a job.

[–] cyd 25 points 6 months ago (1 children)

It's nothing to do with Japan, really. It's about India and its economy slowly clawing its way up from its historically low base. Note that India's GDP per capita is still well below the global average (and Japan's is well above).

[–] mipadaitu 21 points 6 months ago (1 children)

Read the article again. Japan has a slower economic growth than the world average.

This is from a number of factors, including that they are a highly developed economy with less head room, BUT also because the workforce is aging out. They have fewer young people.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan

They have a declining population, and the median age is much older than most countries. This is absolutely a major reason for their lack of economic growth.

[–] cyd -2 points 6 months ago

Irrelevant. Because of India's population, the only way for it not to eventually surpass Japan in total GDP is for India to remain perpetually mired in backwardness. Since the 1990s, India has undergone successive rounds of economic liberalization, thereby achieving catch-up growth. All that stuff with Japanese demographics, bad management, etc. are secondary factors. Even if all the factors for Japan had been more favorable, it would only have postponed the day of overtake by a few years.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 6 months ago

There are two ways to increase productivity. You can work more hours or you can work more efficiently. Japan has spent the last few decades increasing hours worked while never improving efficiency. Other Asian countries are growing their economies by building modern factories with the latest machines and tools. Japan won't let go of their fax machines and stamps.