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But what's the likelihood of that happening? The Republican voter base lives in an alternative world, with alternative news and alternative media - and they are working hard on perpetuating that through indoctrination, both in the education system and through religion.
There have been so many points over the last couple of years where no rational person could keep supporting them, yet their base has grown or stayed the same. Their last president literally attempted a coup, yet there's a good chance he'll be re-elected. And even if he's not, and he dies in the next couple of years - his fascist movement will not end with him.
I'm not sure. I wouldn't bet on it either and don't think it's very likely to happen. They may have found a bridge too far for even their voters with the abortion ban stuff though. Theirs is an exceedingly unpopular opinion, and the more action they take to make abortion completely illegal without even exemptions for shit like rape and incest, the more I think they'll find themselves unelectable.
I agree with the rest of what you're saying, however, on this point I have a difference of opinion.
I don't think fascism is an easily organized type of government. In my view, it's essentially a cult of personality in politics and a single autocrat is essential to its continued function. It's a type of retro-fitted monarchy where you have "dear leader" installed at the top and he cannot be removed except through death or exile.
One of the major problems with monarchies, autocracies, and even the mob (and sometimes business) is succession plans. These forms of organization can be stable for a while, but they tend to fall apart entirely or fizzle out at least somewhat once the central figure goes into the ground.
The Republican Party largely would've preferred to move on from Donald Trump probably as soon as he lost in 2020, but the populist dynamics are not allowing it to happen. "His base" is still his. Your Rons Desantis and your Nikkis Haley are no match for his cult of personality.
If he were to die, the people who voted for him that outlived him would still be alive, but I think they'd have a large amount of difficulty finding another leader to follow in exactly the same way. They'd likely split in their support for other leaders and their "movement" would be greatly damaged as a result.