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The "I'm voting third party because I don't like either candidate" people are the reason for Trump's first presidency
So.. no, that's not even remotely true. The percentage of third party votes would not have helped Hillary win the 2016 election. She ran a terrible campaign and completely ignored the key states: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. All 3 states, at least at the time, were considered heavily blue states, and she proceeded to lose in all 3. Her campaign lacked a clear, articulated message that spoke to voters to draw out a significant voter turnout, and just underestimated the populism aspect of Trump's run. He was full of shit and his legacy will be the conservative supreme court justices he left behind, but his campaign promised to revitalize dying blue class industries in the Rust belt which incentivized working class voters in a way that Hillary's moderate campaign absolutely failed to.
I don't think the populism factor will attract new voters for this upcoming election, as both Trump and Biden have their core voter bases established. However, the campaign messaging that gives voters incentive for a better turnout will always be the key factor. The message of "Hey, at least I'm not the other guy" does not work. It didn't work in 2016. Hillary didn't even learn from her failed campaign because in the aftermath of her defeat she wrote in her book What Happened, "If just 40,000 people across Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania had changed their minds, I would have won". That whole mindset is just so out of touch with the political landscape in 2016, and this upcoming election cycle will be no different.
The third party voters in a handful of states absolutely ended up being the deciding factor. It's not the absolute number of electoral college votes which I think you know but instead the states like Wisconsin and Michigan that Trump won by less than the larger than typical number of green party votes. I don't think that this trick will work twice but it's certainly being astroturfed like crazy again
By how many votes did Hillary lose, again?
77 votes in the electoral college. The total electoral college votes for third parties combined (Gary Johnson + Jill Stein) was 7. So in the unlikely event that Hillary won over all of the Gary Johnson libertarian voters and Jill Stein green party voters, she would still have lost. By a lot. She won the popular vote so that's cool. But unfortunately that doesn't win elections.