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After the shit show that was polling with 2016, I seriously doubt any polls get much valid data now. Or that it holds long enough to change anything. The crazy way our system is set up, there's like IDK, maybe 100,000 people who basically vote randomly each election that makes the difference. In 2024 I have to think if in March you're still voting Trump, he could probably show up, rape your wife and daughter and you'd still think come November, better than Biden.
On the Democratic side, I can't actually think what policy position would make you think Trump would get you closer to your desired goals. I know the media doesn't like to talk about it, but it's not like Trump is any more with it. At least Biden is getting confused between 2 ongoing crisis that exist while Trump is randomly talking about magnets and water. You can't convince me one is sharper than the other or in better health, or more likely to live out a 4 year term.
It's more about who's actually showing up to vote, and in that case I think Biden has the uphill battle because for reasons that escape me, Trump gets people more excited.
Mostly because he sucks. Gaza and the border are the two big things depressing turnout this voter cycle (the former doesn't need explanation, and many people were gonna vote for him specifically so the latter doesn't happen), and he's just not doing enough to make people want to vote for him.