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I've love for just one of the people anonymously downvoting to chime in. What you wrote is completely accurate but every nuclear-themed post here and on Reddit is downvoted without anyone putting forward a counter-argument.
here https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1610381114 we can talk about this, feel free to put forward counter arguments, the gist of the cited paper is that previous studies claiming 100% renewable baseload is possible requires sketchy manipulation of the expected demand as well as currently unavailable storage technology on an almost impossible scale. We're working on all kinds of storage solutions but the reality is we're not there yet. I'm rooting for molten salt storage or compressed gas storage rather than ramping up more lithium battery storage. Flow batteries are promising as well, but in any case we won't have enough storage or transmission capability to have a 100% renewable baseload in the next couple of decades.
Looks like someone beat me to it :)
"In sum, Clack et al.’s analysis is riddled with errors and has no impact on Jacobson et al.’s conclusions."
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1708069114
Surely there wouldn't any astroturfing be going on here, would there?
I don't think it's astroturfing, it's just cognitive dissonance. Lots of people were raised thinking that nuclear power was the future and they can't let go of that. That's why they downvote without commenting - there's no factual case for new nuclear and that goes double for SMRs.
there absolutely is. It's a good transitional source of power that we currently understand very well, and know how to manage, but simply cannot build. It would be a very prudent way of ensuring some "insurance" time before fusion starts being even remotely viable.
Although i don't think SMRs are the correct answer here.
Not with the design and build times new nuclear has. It can take 10-15 years to build a plant, and during that time costs will usually spiral and schedules will slip. At the same time, renewables and storage will have gotten even more competitive.
this is true, but nuclear plants are slated to run for 30-50 years. France has been running their existing fleet to 50 years with maintenance extensions.
There was a recent plant vogtle, i believe, that was finished. Although if im not mistaken i think they just stopped midway through that one, it is up and running right now though last i checked, maybe not generating power yet but definitely running.
I'm guessing you're referring to the flammanvile reactor project in france? If so thats an EPR design, which are horrendously complicated, and the vast majority of the issues present in the construction are the inability to pour concrete correctly, and the inability to weld correctly. Which is something that happens after 30 years of not building any nuclear plants. We quite literally just have to build more if we want to be able to use it.
It's true that renewables are more competitive, but solar requires significant power storage figures, which can be problematic at best. Or require other production methods to take up the slack. Wind is quite good, but has the significant problem of waste. Turbine blades are a huge mess. That's mostly due to industry pressure to make it profitable, and the push for it to succeed, which nuclear hasn't seen. Nuclear just needs the same thing.
No matter which angle I approach the topic from, it always comes back to this:
"findings suggest that the cost per kilowatt (KW) for utility-scale solar is less than $1,000, while the comparable cost per KW for nuclear power is between $6,500 and $12,250. At present estimates, the Vogtle nuclear plant will cost about $10,300 per KW, near the top of Lazard’s range. This means nuclear power is nearly 10 times more expensive to build than utility-scale solar on a cost per KW basis."
https://www.energysage.com/about-clean-energy/nuclear-energy/solar-vs-nuclear/
I just don't see how this makes any economic sense. Sure, we could go all in on new nuclear and it would work fine but I don't want to pay for that, I want cheap renewable power.
Then there's this:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/high-river-temperatures-limit-french-nuclear-power-production-2023-07-12/
Building a plant with a lifecycle of 30-50 years seems like a bad idea when our world is getting more and more unpredictable. We've got climate change, we've got Putin fucking around with 6 reactors in Ukraine, earthquakes, tsunamis, human error, etc.
If a wind turbine catches fire, it's not that big of a deal.
shits expensive because those plants are older, more complicated, and riddled with constructions issues. Literally all we have to do is just build more of them, and it will go away.
Or if that doesnt satisfy you, a one time government subsidy for the building costs will drastically improve it. (most of the cost is upfront after all.)
I’ve shown the data, there’s no economic case. Not to be an ass but your post reads like nuclear fanfic rather than a persuasive argument for new nuclear.
yes, i know, but it's more complicated than "just data" modern reactor designs are orders of magnitude simpler than previous designs, modern reactor issues are primarily construction related (a solvable issue) Nuclear is a particularly apt solution to the problem if done correctly.
Solar/wind IS cheaper, but solar and wind also have problems. Solar is more complicated at scale. You need to start balancing production/consumption on either side, neither of which are consistent. recycling and waste disposal is another big concern. Solar panels for instance consume tons of different rare earth metals, and materials that are hard to manufacture, dangerous for humans to work with, and complicated to get rid of. And add on top of that energy storage.
There isn't a "good" solution, merely a lot of different solutions, some more apt than others, sometimes it depends on the situation.
maybe i'm a little autistic about nuclear power, but you cannot deny it's potential application in the power production infrastructure. There is absolutely a case to be made there.
Vogtle 3 & 4 are AP1000s. Construction started in 2013 (preliminary work had started before this, but a design change halted it). Unit 3 was originally supposed to complete commissioning in 2017, but only happened last year. Unit 4 should be online this year. The initial $12B budget went to $14B at the start of construction, but will end up somewhere over $30B.
V.C . Summer in South Carolina has a similar project with two AP1000s. The initial budget was $9B, but the project was cancelled while under construction when projections put the total cost over $23B.
There have been 6 EPRs built, Flamanville-3, Olkiluoto-3, Taishan-1 & 2, and Hinkley Point C (2 units).
All of them are/were massively over budget and behind schedule.
Olkiluoto started construction in 2005, was supposed to complete commissioning in 2010, but only came online last year. Costs went from €3B to somewhere over €11B, the contract 'not-to-exceed' amount.
Flamanville started construction in 2007, was supposed to complete commissioning in 2012, but is projected to complete commissioning late this year. Costs went from €3.3B to somewhere over €20B.
Hinkley Point C is still under construction. It's difficult to put an actual start date because a pile of preliminary site prep work happened prior to real construction starting. Concrete was poured in 2016 though and it was supposed to be operational in 2023. They're now estimating 2028 at the earliest. Costs have gone from £16B to and estimated £35B.
Taishan 1 & 2 started construction in 2009/10 and went online in 2018/19, roughly 5 years late. Unit 1 had to be taken offline for a year due to faulty fuel bundles. Both units have had reliability issues. Costs ended up at the equivalent of $7.5B, almost double the original estimate.
TBF the EPR is just a horrifically complex design. It's no wonder they all sucked.
No, it's because it's an off topic tangent. We're talking about SMRs doing not-baseline. Not renewables doing baseline. The very fact they brought it up is indication of binary thought patterns like team sports thinking. "They are for this one thing I don't like, therefore they must be against the thing I do like!" kind of thing. False dichotomy.
Apparently it's also false on top of that. Go figure.