Others point out that common wisdom at the time was that Hillary was going to he a shoe in as the next president

Just to also point out. This "common wisdom" is part of why Hillary lost and why a lot of people argued that RBG should have resigned during her term because the next Democratic President wasn't a shoe-in, and people couldn't just rely on that.

People also seem to forget that both a Bush and a Clinton were running in 2016 and in a way, Trump being elected was a initially a rejection of "political dynasties" as Presidencies (which then immediately turned to his followers wanting him as a forever king, but that's a different issue entirely). I had a Bush or a Clinton as President for twenty years of my life (roughly a third of the average lifespan for a US citizen). From my youth until I was no longer considered a youth, well into adulthood. I remember being frustrated at being faced with both a Bush and a Clinton in the primaries. I know lots of other people, on both sides of the aisle, did too. Nobody wanted more of the same (I know Hillary didn't view herself as "more of the same" of her husband, and for good reason, but that wasn't common opinion).

The entire thing about it being "common wisdom" was spoken from a position of privilege by elite Democrats and ignoring that common people weren't every excited about either Bush or Clinton but Clinton got shoehorned in anyway while Bush had his "please clap" moment. It's not a shoe-in if you have to use a shoehorn, mind you.

I think that by the time Ginsburg's health prompted discussion of strategic retirement McConnel had already established that he could block Obama's nominations indefinitely. It didn't start with a Supreme Court nominee. There were over 100 vacant bench seats by the end of Obama's presidency.