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The shoplifting scare might not have been real — but its effects are (www.vox.com)

submitted 10 months ago by MicroWave to c/news

92 comments fedilink hide all child comments

It turns out shoplifting isn’t spiraling out of control, but lawmakers are pushing for tougher penalties for low-level and nonviolent crimes anyway.

Over the last couple of years, it seemed that America was experiencing a shoplifting epidemic. Videos of people brazenly stealing merchandise from retailers often went viral; chains closed some of their stores and cited a rise in theft as the primary reason; and drugstores such as CVS and Walgreens started locking up more of their inventory, including everyday items like toothpaste, soaps, and snacks. Lawmakers from both major parties called for, and in some cases even implemented, more punitive law enforcement policies aimed at bucking the apparent trend.

But evidence of a spike in shoplifting, it turns out, was mostly anecdotal. In fact, there’s little data to suggest that there’s a nationwide problem in need of an immediate response from city councils or state legislatures. Instead, what America seems to be experiencing is less of a shoplifting wave and more of a moral panic.

…

Now, those more forgiving criminal justice policies are at risk, in part because of a perceived trend that appears to have been overblown.

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[–] A7thStone 11 points 10 months ago (2 children)

But evidence of a spike in shoplifting, it turns out, was mostly anecdotal.

[–] SCB 3 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) (1 children)

Shoplifting is trending up, it's just not the moral panic Republicans made it out to be.

https://capitaloneshopping.com/research/shoplifting-statistics/

It's also not generally driven by poor people trying to survive

Shoplifting losses grew 19.4% year-over-year; as a share of retail sales dollars, losses to theft increased 10.5%.

58% of organized retail crime is cargo theft.

So yeah dude is pretty much spot on. Check out the lists of what is typically stolen - things that are easily resold, and shit teens like (because teens steal a lot for a variety of reasons). Essentials don't make the list anywhere

[–] tbird83ii 0 points 10 months ago

First - This article is conflating "shrink" and 'retail theft". Shrink accounts for losses including theft, but also accounts for accounting losses, damaged goods, and lost shipments. Theft itself is broken up into "external theft" and "emoyee theft". External theft was 36% of that 1.6% ($40B). (https://cdn.nrf.com/sites/default/files/2023-09/NRF_National_Retail_Security_Survey_2023.pdf)

Second, these statics are from FY2022, which ended Jan 30th, 2023. We won't know FY2023, as it is not over yet, so we don't know if it is truely "trending up" or holding steady - we have ONE (1) years' worth of data of increased shrink.

Third - shrink, according to their own statistics, ROSE between FY2021 and FY2022, yet FY2022 was on par with FY2019 (1.62%) and FY2020(1.6%), while FY2021 decreased to 1.4% - so, again... no "trend" of an increase. Also no "trend" of a decrease, for that matter. (https://cdn.nrf.com/sites/default/files/2020-07/RS-105905_2020_NationalRetailSecuritySurvey.pdf) (https://cdn.nrf.com/sites/default/files/2021-08/2021%20National%20Retail%20Security%20Survey%20updated.pdf)

They even retracted their statement last month (https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/us-retail-lobbyists-retract-key-claim-organized-retail-crime-2023-12-06/)

Further, if we take their own data again, external theft to be that figure above ($40B), and again use the NRF's statistics that cybercrime rose to an average of $4M per incident, you can quickly see how this idea of shoplifting being majorly problematic is erroneous. Moreover, the NRF lists shoplifting as only the third most important worry of surveyed retailers - in their own words, they are more concerned about shootings and cybercrime than inperson shoplifting.

Lastly, this all needs to be put in context. Taking the $112.1B adjustment as 1.6% of retail sales, this totals $7.1T... so, in reality, EXTERNAL THEFT (not employee theft, not product loss due to damage or shipping to the wrong place) was .00576% of total sales, and over the period of 2019 to 2022, retail profits (which are taken into acount AFTER things like theft have been factored in) have steadily increased up to the 2022 level of 5.9% (after skyrocketing in 2021 to over 13%) so even while they are claiming that retail theft is growing, even total shrink isn't effecting their overall margins. (https://www.statista.com/statistics/197576/annual-retail-sales-in-the-us-since-1992/#:~:text=By%20the%20end%20of%202022,increase%20from%20the%20year%20before.) (https://www.forrester.com/blogs/us-retail-industry-sales-and-profits-trends-2001-2022-steady-growth/#:~:text=US%20Retail%20Net%20Profit%20Trends&text=The%20retail%20net%20margin%20remained,decreased%20to%203.3%25%20in%202022.)

Now - of course this is an overall look at retail - this doesn't take into account the individual annecdotes, or the massive differnces between small local retailers and big box stores, nor does it look into the differnces between online retailers, store fronts, and the differences in theft experienced by each (e.g. amazon is massive - are they over-representing both profit margin and shrink due to cymbercrime?).

[–] michaelmrose -4 points 10 months ago (1 children)

I made a hobby out of fucking with shoplifters for YEARS. For a sample size of one store it is real and obvious.