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I don't think Math Illiteracy is the culprit in the case of well educated people, which I assume Maher is.
It is not hard to understand that vaccines have extremely low chance of serious side effects, while covid just has a low mortality chance, but a relatively high chance of long term effects. And these same vaccine deniers typically tout that covid is endemic now and "everyone is going to get it", so we can just mark likelihood to get it as near 100%.
It's not a hard concept. If you accept that you're oing to get covid one way or another, your net chance of serious harm is much lower if you take the vaccine.
But to these asshats, it's not about logic, it's about ego. His phrasing was extremely demeaning, and offered zero evidence to his point of view. It was simply "if you don't agree with me, you're an idiot". And that's the argument I tend to get from the antivaxxers, and if pressed for actual stats, they will claim some conspiracy to hide the true numbers, and at best, quote all these irrelevant tangential stats that some misinformation article claims indicates the mainstream science willfully ignores in their agenda to promote dangerous vaccines.