this post was submitted on 01 Dec 2023
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We already have a not insignificant minority trying to leave the EU or destroy it. Imagine how many votes they get if the EU tries to become a state
It would probably be very difficult inside the current system. Maybe it would need to grow dynamically starting with central countries first and then moving further out. If Hungary and Slovakia prefer to be Russian puppets thats fine for them. I am sure they'll learn in due time.
Minority is exactly right. With Brexit they managed to sway enough floating morons with promises of golden palaces and full autonomy.
In the real world, where you have to cooperate to get anywhere on big issues, we quickly find out that throwing a tantrum because you're a grown-up that can determine its own bedtime just gets you discredited and tasked with "all right, let's see you manage all this stuff on your own then".
Putting this into perspective: The PVV won dutch elections recently and did so with 23% of the vote. It is well known that a significant portion ot those voters don't support all of Wilders' policy, they just want to see change. And Wilders' main argument for leaving the EU is "migrants bad, we want border control". Not exactly fully thought out.
The exact percentage of people that will actually vote to leave the EU if it even comes that far is likely not much higher. Combine that with the fact that everyone can see the UK doing just great, and the cances are slim any of this big talk actually leads to Nexit.
We're seeing the power of stupid people in large groups at work, but there are simply not enough of them to do any significant damage. Our political system makes it so that anyone has to cooperate to get anywhere, and Wilders needs support of at least 27% of the elected officials to get anything done. It is highly unlikely any of his more radical policies will survive that process.
You do not need every current EU member to agree to this. You just need enough for it to make sense. If for example you have German, France, Spain, Portugal and Belgium, which are the countries more or less in favor of federalism at the moment, it is enough for most of the effects of scale to work. Thats like half the population of the EU and with a large share of the GDP. Maybe some of the eastern members join as well, which would mean even more strength.