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I wasn't comparing Biden and Trump, I was comparing Biden and any other potential Democratic candidate. The incumbent is almost always the safer bet than fielding someone new because they've been tried and tested.
As for Trump, all bets are off. He lost once against Biden and they're going to put him up against Biden again. Conventional wisdom would suggest that is just about the stupidest tactic you could do. But it's clear that all wisdom left the Republican party long ago.
I mean, I feel like it was easy for me to think you were. All I'm saying is if winning an election is the bar, then there's not many conclusions you can draw for the general that way since they've both won. The head to head is more important, as you've said. But still that doesn't mean Biden is a good candidate since the only time he won, in about half a dozen attempts, was against one of the worst candidates of all time. Biden is a better candidate than Trump sure, but so was Hillary and that didn't help her.
That wasn't me.
But fine, let's compare Biden and Trump.
Both have won presidential elections.
Only one has lost a presidential election.
Trump has not beaten Biden before.
Biden has beaten Trump before.
You're right that there aren't all that many conclusions we can draw. Hillary was a great candidate, and she failed while Biden won. So clearly picking the right candidate is not easy. Ultimately, only hindsight will tell if Biden was the right choice. But as far as predictions go, we've got some solid data and a proven track record that shows he can do it.