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Recruitment is low, but a large reason for that is their standards are kind of high relative to our youth. Less than 1 in 4 aged 17-24 are expected to be able to qualify.
Visible tattoos? Sorry. ADHD medication in the past six months? Need a waiver. Test positive for weed? Sorry. Not many can even pass the fitness tests anymore.
That being said, recruitment isn't the only measure for a strong military. You could very well be correct in your conclusion, but I wouldn't base it solely on that.
I would think the lack of general care for soldiers after the fact is a big driving point of people just not wanting to even attempt it. Why put yourself through that rigorous experience if in 30 years you're disabled and fighting with your own government to help with living costs?
I don't delve too much into Military things so I can't even say for certain if I'm on track with this. This is purely from an outsider's perspective.
To get the hell outta dodge. It is the best way for a young American with few ties to get a fresh start in life.
You start getting paid the second you leave, you get health, dental, housing, food, gym membership, discounts, job training, and education paid for. If you lock into your contract a specific job, it takes longer to ship out, but you won't get stuck doing IT if you want to work on tanks or planes or whatever.
I'm not delusional, there is a very real chance you will see combat of some sort. Even POGs (basically non combat jobs) that are deployed to bases in active conflicts will get the joy of being on the bad end IDFs (indirect fire attack, basically mortars, rockets, artillery, etc).
Source: Been there down that.
One day I realised I was out of options. The military had always been a theoretical get out of Dodge card for me, and since I was out of ideas, no place to live, and it was the middle of winter, I signed up.
My MOS placement was possibly the single best luck of the draw I've ever had in my life, and having a guaranteed contract saved my ass a few times in tech school.
Even though my military career wasn't the best, and ended early, the training both personal and technical still serves me well to this day.
I literally can not imagine what my life would be like if I hadn't joined.
Thank you for the information!