this post was submitted on 16 Jun 2023
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Not really. Current estimates are that Russia has about 1,500 missiles deployed and ready to go. If we assume only 10% will actually lift off, and of those, only 10% will hit their target and detonate, that leaves 15 cities to be hit. Living near a potential target?
Me? I'm not far downhill from a National Lab; if their nukes work, I'm toast.
If any nuke hits, we're all toast.
What? Why would we assume this?
I'm assuming absolute crap maintenance of missiles and warheads. If they kept better care of them, more targets get hit.
We should err on the side of pessimism, not wild optimism when it comes to this stuff. Joke's on us if we start a nuclear war and a billion people die because we thought their maintenance was bad.