this post was submitted on 16 Jun 2023
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[–] DevCat 7 points 1 year ago (2 children)

this badly breaks MAD.

Not really. Current estimates are that Russia has about 1,500 missiles deployed and ready to go. If we assume only 10% will actually lift off, and of those, only 10% will hit their target and detonate, that leaves 15 cities to be hit. Living near a potential target?

[–] fubo 3 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Me? I'm not far downhill from a National Lab; if their nukes work, I'm toast.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago

If any nuke hits, we're all toast.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 year ago (1 children)

If we assume only 10% will actually lift off, and of those, only 10% will hit their target and detonate

What? Why would we assume this?

[–] DevCat 3 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I'm assuming absolute crap maintenance of missiles and warheads. If they kept better care of them, more targets get hit.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago

We should err on the side of pessimism, not wild optimism when it comes to this stuff. Joke's on us if we start a nuclear war and a billion people die because we thought their maintenance was bad.