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I disagree. The 2022 midterm was supposed to be their "red wave", and it failed miserably. The most likely candidate to lose were MAGA republicans in that election, indicating that MAGA politics is no longer a winning platform. There's also signs of cohesion in the democratic party to exploit the fracturing of the GOP, best seen in this legislative session from MN and MI. I'm not saying that it will be a slam dunk win, I'm saying that the odds of Trump winning are inarguably stacked against him. One failed election, other politicians on the same platform failing, multiple federal criminal prosecutions, a fractured GOP, McConnell and McCarthy pushing the party towards center, and a lot more factors point to Trump losing the election. Either way, this pledge will bite the GOP in the ass.
Well also remember that Republican state legislatures continued to gerrymander the shit out of their districts in 2020. The electoral map is different now than the last election.
I spy that midwest.social account, so I'm sure you heard about the Wisconsin supreme court election and how Protasiewicz won. That combined with the lawsuit for partisan gerrymandering is likely to lead to redistricting that will make the state representative again. The deep south states that are redistricting are trying to cement their power to prevent another Wisconsin from happening rather than trying to tip the scale in their favor
Here in Kansas they submitted a district map from the twilight zone that survived litigation. It's ridiculous.