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Man, I knew that COVID-19 caused reductions in spending, but I hadn't realized that it had caused such a significant payoff of debt. Like, I could have believed it causing an increase rather than decrease in credit card debt.
I'm surprised by the increases before and after, though. You'd expect some increase over time just due to inflation and growth of the economy. And that chart isn't zero-valued.
Lets check how much is just inflation...
gets inflation calculator
Okay, so inflation is responsible for a 32% increase between 2013 and 2023.
There was a 49% increase in credit card debt over the same period.
So most of the increase in the chart is just inflation.
Population increased by 6.5%.
So that explains a 40% increase, together.
And there's a gradual increase in the size of the economy over time. I don't know how that'd best be measured in terms of what should translate into credit card debt.
But point is, while there's probably some increase there, it's not a huge one in real, per-capita terms, which is what you'd care about.
While a sanity check on the absolute value is good I would argue that the most impactful data presented here is the rate at which debt is growing.
Yes, debt was paid off during COVID but now that the free money has dried up people are racking up debt much quicker than before. So while the current value might be in line with previous trends the rate at which debt is accumulating is what is alarming.
It’s unlikely for that trend to slow or stop unless real wages increase, prices fall, or demand drops. We’re seeing some of that but apparently not enough.