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With the caveat that it's not the first shuffle of a new deck. Since card decks come out of the factory in the same order, the probability that the first shuffle will result in an order that has been seen before is a little higher than on a deck that has already been shuffled.
Since a deck of cards can only be shuffled a finite number of times before they get all fucked up, the probability of deck arrangements is probably a long tail distribution
The most efficient way is not to shuffle them but to lay them all on a table, shift them around, and stack them again in arbitrary order.