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this post was submitted on 24 Jul 2023
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They're not going to go to mastodon, but there have already been a pretty big exodus to Threads. I have a feeling that's going to be the thing - twitter is going to die slowly mostly in favor of Threads, meanwhile Mastodon and the fediverse will probably continue being a minor player for a while.
Threads will kill nothing for as long as it remains unavailable in Europe due to breaking GDPR.
Bluesky is more likely, particularly given its Twitter's former ceo building it.
Bluesky just barely hit a million users is still invite only and is largely in a beta state, and though I'm not on it, everyone I know says it's a zombie platform and they'd rather be on Mastodon for nerd shit or Threads for normie shit. Threads has over 100m users already. The numbers alone make Bluesky not really worth mentioning, and effectively Threads killed it within the first day. Dorsey has also shown a track record of having no idea what he's doing. Probably half of the things people think about with Twitter come from the community. @mentions, rt, the term "tweet", etc. The twitter app was developed by a third party and bought.
As much as Zuckerberg sucks, Meta actually runs like a real company with adults at the helm. Dorsey's already fucking up bluesky not learning anything from his time at twitter and not making moderation a priority. Brands are already embracing Threads over Twitter and Bluesky because they don't want their ads showing up next to porn and nazis.
Oh, and as for GDPR, Meta has already stated they plan for a later launch, and again since it's a company of (sociopathic?) adults, they'll actually get it done, but it's already effectively over.
Meta has already been hit with antitrust by the EU. Even if they later get around the fact they're breaking GDPR by datasharing all the instagram accounts (which is where the inflated number of users comes from) they can not get around the Digital Markets Act coming into effect next year which carries a fine of 10% of all global revenue for actions like this.
I remember when facebook changed its looks to mimic twitter (the whole newsfeed launch was part of that.) I can't believe it. After 10+ years, fucking facebook might actually dethrone twitter.
It's been stated that Meta intends to federate Threads with Mastodon eventually, so either will ultimately be viable.
I have zero faith that will happen. I don't think they anticipated how well threads would be adopted and that saying they'd federate was just a hedge.
I bet they'll pull a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embrace,_extend,_and_extinguish
I'm sure that's what they want. A free and open platform that doesn't rely on advertising and isn't there to make a profit? Kill it!
A few instances will likely federate with threads, but probably not the interesting ones...
I think the implication was that Threads will not actually federate
Oh I think they'll do, just to not miss the train, and then they'll find a "smart" way to "destroy" federation and get people on their side... But we'll see...
I haven't really seen anyone leave twitter for threads, just post the same thing to both. Also noticing a few accounts I have on both actually posting on Threads asking others if their user engagement has dropped significantly. Google trends etc all show that Threads has dropped off a cliff after the initial surge in downloads.