this post was submitted on 23 Jul 2023
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The socialists need to secure the vote of nearly all non-right-wing parties to be able to form a coalition, including support from all nationalist parties.
PSOE (122) + Sumar (31) + ERC (7) + Junts (7) + Bildu (6) + PNV (5) = 176 votes needed to appoint Sanchez as PM
This is going to be interesting how negotiations develop in the following months. If they donβt succeed, we will go to repeat elections.
Junts won't vote for PSOE unless they give Catalonia a referendum, which would be demanded on Basque Country as well.
They may get them to abstain however, which would give them a frankengoverment, although I think Pedro is capable to steer such ship.
However I think second elections are more likely. Vox is going down and theres probably civil war in PP with Feijoo vs Ayuso. Unless they fuck up big time its all in PSOE favor.
I don't get where you get that a referendum would be demanded from the Basque Country independist party (bildu), that would totally go against what they have said about doing all that is possible to avoid having Vox in the government.
Also, that would be a stupid move, right now the basque population clearly doesn't want independence, they want their special rights respected and their language to remain protected, which is what both the right nationalists and the left nationalists say, one focused in social issues and the other one on the industry.
Demanding a referendum for the basque country would be political suicide for any party, I'd bet that not even half of the Bildu voters want independence, they just vote the local left party because they feel like they will defend their interests, besides the independence thing, the best.
Edit:
Also, I wouldn't bet on Vox going down on reelections, the reason PP went up is because it got a lot of Vox's votes, people that hoped for a right government with PP. They have failed, so there will be several voters that will return to their original parties. The same thing will not happen to the left because there's more urge now to avoid the right, I hope.
Bildu has not asked for a referendum and won't, they will be supporting PSOE.
But Junts has said they would only support PSOE if they got a referendum on Catalonia. Giving a referendum to Catalonia but not Basque country is not going to sit well with them.
Saying that half of Bildu doesn't vote for independentism is crazy. There are probably some cases but really not widespread.
Good luck and god speed π«‘
Interesting perspective, thanks